[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181708
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1004 mb low is near 27.4N 56.5W, or about 478 nm ESE of
Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-31N
between 44W-54W. Convection associated with this low has
gradually increased in both coverage and organization during the
past 24 hours. Further development is expected, and a
subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during
the next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast
of Bermuda. There is a high chance of formation during the next
48 hours. At this time, gale conditions are expected to begin on
Mon night and follow the low as it moves northward. Please read
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook and the High Seas Forecast
product for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 30W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 07N-14N between 26W-33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 45W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W, from
19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 81W, from 22N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the wave from 09N-20N between 78W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N24W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 07N34W
to 07N43W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 07N45W to
the coast of French Guiana near 06N54W. Scattered moderate
convection  is along and south of the monsoon trough from 03N-
09N between 13W-28W. Isolated convection is seen within 70 nm of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level and surface ridging is sprawled across the Gulf of
Mexico.  Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SE Gulf in
association with a stationary front in the Straits of Florida
from 22N-24N between 83W-88W. A trough is in the Bay of
Campeche, stretching from 22N97W to the coast of Mexico near
19N93W. Moderate easterly winds are noted in the eastern Gulf
with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.
Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

High pressure will continue building across the basin producing
moderate  to fresh easterly winds over eastern Gulf and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. The pressure gradient will tighten
across the eastern Gulf tonight bringing fresh to strong
easterly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two  tropical waves in this basin.

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Panama to a 1008 mb
low  near 10N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted near this low and tropical wave from 08N-11N
between 76W-82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
moving across Jamaica and eastern Cuba from 16N-22N between 74W-
79W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen in the NW
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from 14N-21N between
82W-88W. The eastern Caribbean does not have any significant
convection at this time. Moderate to fresh trades are north of
Colombia/Venezuela with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas
average 3-6 ft with up to 7 ft north of Colombia.

A tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean will reach the
Yucatan  Peninsula by Tue morning enhancing winds and convection
over the area. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some
gradual development of this system will be possible through the
middle of the week as it moves slowly northward or north-
northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the  low in the central Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section
for information on the two tropical waves in this basin.

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic off the
coast  of Florida to the Straits of Florida, from 31N71W to
24N83W. Scattered moderate convection extends from off the north-
central coast of Florida to eastern Cuba, including the Bahamas,
from 20N-30N between 72W-81W. North of the front, fresh ENE
winds are noted with light to gentle winds south of the front.
Seas are up to 9 ft off the coast of Florida.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted to the east of the
low in  the central Atlantic. Seas average 6-10 ft. A trough is
east of the Lesser Antilles from 17N54W to 10N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 12N-18N between 47W-54W. Another
trough extends from 22N37W to 15N42W. Isolated thunderstorms are
within 90 nm. A pre-frontal trough is noted in the eastern
Atlantic from 31N28W to 30N33W. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are north of the trough with fresh to strong SW winds
south of the trough. Seas are averaging 3-5 ft across the rest
of the basin.

The stationary front will dissipate on Mon. A non-tropical low
pressure system is located about 550 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Further development is expected, and a subtropical
depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day
or  so while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
low will increase winds and seas across the NE waters beginning
tonight.

$$
AReinhart
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