[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb low is near 29N56W, or about 475 nm ESE of Bermuda.
Scattered moderate convection noted from 24N-30N between 51W-58W.
The low continues to show little change in organization since
yesterday. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical
depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or
two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. The
chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high. At this
time, gale conditions are expected to begin on Mon night and
follow the low as it moves northward. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook and the High Seas Forecast product for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E
of the wave axis from 13N-21N between 32W-37W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time.

A west Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 10N between 77W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 11N16W to 08N21W to 07N38W. The
ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 06N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N between 21W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
25N80W to 24N83W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front
over the Straits of Florida. High pressure is building across the
basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin, while gentle
to moderate easterlies prevail west of 90W.

High pressure will continue building across the basin
producing moderate to fresh easterly winds over eastern Gulf and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves currently across the basin.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes along the coasts of
northern Colombia westward to Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate convection is seen south of 13N to include S Nicaragua,
Costa Rica, and Panama. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh winds pulsing
overnight south of 13N and within 200 nm south of Cuba.

The tropical wave across the W Caribbean will continue moving west
enhancing winds and convection over the area. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern
Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system will be
possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly
northwestward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see sections above for details on low pressure to the
southeast of Bermuda and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida
near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 21N-29N
between 73W-78W. To the east, a frontal boundary is approaching
the northeast waters, supporting scattered showers north of 28N
between 28W-48W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed from
16N54W to 12N56W. Scattered showers are noted from 11N-18N
between 48W-56W.

The stationary front will dissipate on Mon. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas are expected N of the front through the
next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the
north and the low will increase winds and seas across the NE
waters beginning on tonight.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net