[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172143
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 29N56W, or about 500 nm ESE
of Bermuda. A well defined band of moderate to strong convection
wraps around the low center, within 200 nm of a line from 24N-034N
between 45W-51W, and south of the low pressure 26N- 29N between
53W-59W. The circulation center is becoming better organized.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a
subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the
next couple of days while the low meanders well southeast of
Bermuda. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is high.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 20N between 34W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has moved into the eastern
Caribbean this afternoon, and is now is along 62W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 11N to 15N between 57W and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
being enhanced due to the proximity of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough south of 10N between 75W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 12N16W to 07N26W to 09N34W. The
ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N42W to 08N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 20N between 20W
and 34W along the monsoon trough. No significant convection is
directly associated with the ITCZ, but to the north a surface
trough is noted from near 11N54W to 17N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 48W and 56W in
association with this trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from South Florida to near 23N90W, then
becomes a stationary front southwestward to near Veracruz. Showers
previously associated with this front have dissipated. A surface
trough that was over the far northwest Gulf has also dissipated.

The cold front will stall and dissipate in the SE Gulf early on
Sun. High pressure will follow the front producing moderate to
fresh easterly winds over eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes along the coasts of
northern Colombia westward to Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate convection is seen south of 19N84W between 82W to 88W,
including the coastal areas from Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras
to Panama.

A tropical wave will continue moving across the western Carribbean
Sun, then reach the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue morning. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this
system will be possible through the middle of next week while it
moves slowly northward or north- northwestward over the western
Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on low
pressure to the southeast of Bermuda.

A cold front passes from 31N70W to South Florida. Although an
earlier pre-frontal band of significant convection has become
disorganized, scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of
this front throughout the Bahamas, then extending north and
northeast toward Bermuda.

The cold front will stall and dissipate Sun. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas are expected N of the front through
tonight. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north
and the low southeast of Bermuda will increase winds and seas
across the NE waters beginning on Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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