[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 30N56.5W, or about 500 nm
ESE of Bermuda. A well defined band of moderate to strong
convection wraps around the low center, within 200 nm of a line
from 24N-034N between 45W-51W, and south of the low pressure 26N-
29N between 53W-59W. The circulation center is becoming better
organized. Additional development of this system is expected,
and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form during
the next couple of days while the low meanders into southeast of
Bermuda. The chance of formation during the next 48 hours is
high. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 18N between 34W
and 38W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 09N to 14N between 56W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is enhance due to the proximity of the monsoon
trough south of 10N between 75W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 12N16W to 08N26W to 08N34W.
The ITCZ resumes west of the tropical wave from 09N41W to
08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 14N
east of 35W along the monsoon trough. No significant activity is
noted along the ITZC, however, to the north from 11N54W to
17N51W a surface trough is noted with scattered moderate
convection from 09N to 17N between 48W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic and passes
through central Florida from 26N82W to 23N95W to the coast of
Mexico near 18N95W. The front then curves inland and
northwestward in Mexico. Isolated showers are evident along and
near 60 nm of the boundary. A surface trough is noted along the
Texas coast to 24N96W. A few Showers are noted in the vicinity
of the trough.

The cold front will drift southward today, then stall and
dissipate in the SE Gulf on Sun. High pressure will follow the
front producing mainly moderate to locally fresh easterly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough extends northeastward from the
tropical wave near 75W into the Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1009
mb low pressure center that is near 30N56.5W.

The monsoon trough passes along the coasts of northern Colombia
Westward to Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is near and along the tropical wave. Scattered
moderate convection is seen south of 19N84W between 82W to 88W,
including the coastal areas from Honduras and the Gulf of
Honduras to Panama.

The tropical wave near 75W will continue to move across
Hispaniola and the central Caribbean today, and reach eastern
Cuba and Jamaica early on Sun. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible
through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward
or north- northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 30N73W, to coast of Florida near
27N80W and continues into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate
showers are within 240 nm to the SE of the frontal boundary. A
pre-frontal line of moderate to strong convection is noted in
the central Bahamas from 21N-26N between 73W-78W.

The cold front will move eastward today, then stall and
dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are
expected N of the front through tonight. A broad non-tropical
low pressure system is located about 500 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Continued slow development is expected, and a
subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during
the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast
of Bermuda. The gradient between high pressure to the north and
the low will increase winds and seas across the NE waters Sun
through Wed.

$$
MTorres
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