[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to
17N with axis near 45W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N-20N between 40W and 50W. Slight
development of this system is possible during the next two or
three days while the system moves generally westward. Upper-
level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development by the middle of the week. This system has a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis along the
Mona Passage or near 67W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
and tstms are across Puerto Rico and its adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 84W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120
nm of the coasts of northern Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 08N22W to 07N29W. The ITCZ begins near 07N29W and continues to
10N42W, then resumes near 10N48W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate
convection from 05N-10N between 28W-36W, and from 08N-14N between
55W-62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is established across the basin with a 1013 mb
high centered near 25N92W. This feature is supporting light to
gentle variable wind, which is forecast to continue through Tue.

Otherwise, light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate the
remainder forecast period ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the NW basin early on Fri. Fresh to strong NNE winds will
follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There are two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea. Please, see
the Tropical Waves section for details.

Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean
will pulse to strong speeds at night through Mon. Moderate to
fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish tonight. A tropical wave, currently near 45W, will bring
moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E
of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat.
Rainshowers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave
progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds
elsewhere will change little through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature across the basin is the tail of a stationary
front that extends from 31N50W to 26N59W. This feature is being
supported by a middle to upper level trough that is also
generating scattered showers and tstms N of 25N between 41W and
58W. Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates the remainder
subtropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging extending over the SW N Atlc waters will continue
to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold
front forecast to enter the NE Florida adjacent waters early on
Mon. The front will extend from 30N73W to Andros Island by Tue
morning before dissipating NE of the central Bahamas on Wed.
Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate the region
the remainder forecast period.

$$
Ramos
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