[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 00N-17N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 05N-18N
between 39W and 44W. Slow development of this system could be
possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave
continues moving westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next
week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
within 48 hours and through 5 days.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

Latest ASCAT data suggests the tropical wave near 70W is farther
E along 66W, where a well defined inverted-V pattern is noted.
This wave has been re-located to 66W. The wave combined with a
diffluent pattern aloft is supporting shower and thunderstorm
activity over NE Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and
regional waters.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 00N-19N, moving
Westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm on east side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and
drops southwestward to near 07N29W. The ITCZ continues from
07N29W to 08N37W, then continues west of the tropical wave
>From 08N44W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within
about 100 nm S of the ITCZ between 28W-31W, and from 08N-13N
between 54W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure from the western Atlantic has settled in over
the area. However, the most recent scatterometer data showed
moderate to locally fresh winds across the north-central Gulf.
Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Gulf between
Delta and the Atlantic ridge. An upper-level low is helping to
induce convection over the Yucatan Peninsula with a surface trough
south of 22N88W.

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds in the NE gulf will diminish
Sun evening. Weak high pressure will establish across the basin
afterwards providing light to gentle variable wind through Tue.
Light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate the remainder
forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details. Low-topped
trade wind showers are seen elsewhere across the basin with
drier air noted over the central Caribbean.

Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean
will pulse to strong speeds at night through Mon. Moderate to
fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish by Sun night. Gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere
will change little through the period. A tropical wave, currently
near 43W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to
the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Tue and to the E
Caribbean Wed through Fri. Rainshowers are expected over this
region of the basin as the wave progresses westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southwest periphery of high pressure centered well north of
the area near 34N69W extends south-southwestward toward the
Bahamas and Florida. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and Delta is allowing for fresh southeast winds to
occur N of 30N W of 78W. These winds will diminish to moderate
speeds Sun as Delta pulls farther to the northeast.

A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 26N61W. A trough ahead
of it is along a position from 25N57W to 20N64W and to just
northeast of Puerto Rico. A cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is near the southern end of the trough axis
covering the waters from 17N-21N between 62W-66W. Another trough
is analyzed from 28N42W to 18N45W. Scattered showers are near the
northern end of the trough axis. There is another trough well
depicted by the latest ASCAT near 20N51W to 11N54W. Moderate
winds are noted from 16N-21N. The remainder of the Atlantic is
under the influence of a 1036 mb high pressure located NE of the
Azores. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
over W Africa is resulting in moderate to fresh N-NE winds across
the Canary Islands and over the waters N of the Cabo Verde
Islands to about 22N.

As for the forecast, surface ridging extending over the region
will continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Tue.
The front will then weaken and stall from Bermuda into the Central
Bahamas on Wed. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will
dominate the region the remainder forecast period.

$$
MMT
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