[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is centered near 22.5N 90.9W at 08/0300 UTC or
100 nm NW of Progreso Mexico moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is
within 90 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and 120 nm
southern semicircle, with scattered moderate convection noted
elsewhere within 180 nm of the center, except 270 nm NE quadrant.
A NW motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected through
early today, followed by a N-NW motion late today, and a faster N
to N-NE motion Fri and Fri night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through today, and approach the northern Gulf coast on
Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland by late Fri or Fri
night. Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through today, and Delta
is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Fri. Peak
seas near the center of Delta are forecast to build to at least
33 feet today as Delta moves over the central Gulf. Very heavy
rainfall, hurricane force winds, and a life-threatening storm
surge are expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast Fri
into early Sat. The heavy rain will then spread inland across the
Mississippi Valley. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 21W/22W from 01N-16N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture
maximum that corresponds well with the wave axis. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N-13N between 19W-24W.
Between 19W and the coast of Africa, scattered to numerous
moderate with isolated strong convection is seen from 04N-15N.

A tropical wave axis is along 58W from 05N-23N, moving W at 10
kt. Isolated showers are noted near the wave axis from 11N-22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 08N20W to 07.5N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N32W to
07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N
and 270 nm S of the axes between 26W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is currently dominated by the circulation of
Hurricane Delta. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds
over the far NE Gulf of Mexico, north of 29N. The remainder of
the Gulf contains fresh to strong cyclonic surface wind flow
around the periphery of Hurricane Delta. An upper-level
anticyclone is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
area of seas 12 ft or greater associated with Hurricane Delta
will expand greatly today to cover most of the central and
western Gulf of Mexico. Seas near the center of Delta will build
today to 30 to 35 ft.

Hurricane Delta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane
near 25N93W early this evening, then weaken slightly before
moving inland between Lake Charles and Lafayette late Friday. By
Saturday morning, tropical storm force winds should end over the
northern Gulf of Mexico when the weakening tropical storm is well
inland near 32.5N 91.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered just south of the Windward
Passage. The upper low is inducing scattered showers and tstorms
from 13.5N-20N between 71.5W-83W. Farther south, the Colombia low
is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection south of
13.5N between 69W-76W. Similar convection just offshore Costa
Rica is associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. The
latest ASCAT pass indicates that S winds over the Yucatan Channel
have diminished to fresh as Hurricane Delta moves NW over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas have likely subsided to 5-7
ft. Fresh trades are noted from the coast of Venezuela to 15N
between 64W-71W. Mainly gentle flow is elsewhere across the
basin. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the northwest
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds mainly over
the south-central Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, high pressure at 1018 mb is located near 31N66W,
while a weak 1014 mb low pressure area is located near 33N74W.
Mainly moderate E-SE flow prevails S of 24N, with fresh winds in
the Old Bahama Channel and from the N coast of Hispaniola through
the SE Bahamas. Gentle anticyclonic winds are N of 24N. Seas are
mainly 3-5 ft NE of the Bahamas. Across the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean, from 05N-31N, gentle to moderate wind speeds
prevail. One exception is the area from 13N-20N between 22W and
the coast of Africa, where fresh N winds are seen on the latest
ASCAT pass.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move SE off the
Carolinas reaching the northern portion of the basin by the end
of the week enhancing winds/seas. The front will stall along
roughly 27N by late Fri. The western portion of the front will
lift north as a warm front through early Sat. A weak pressure
pattern will follow and gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail Sun and Mon.

$$
Hagen
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