[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072224
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is centered near 22.1N 89.5W at 07/2100 UTC or
50 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 75 nm of the center, with scattered
moderate to strong convection noted elsewhere within 240 nm of
the center. A NW motion with a reduction in forward speed is
expected through early Thu, followed by a N-NW motion by late
Thu, and a faster N to N-NE motion Fri and Fri night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the southern
and central Gulf of Mexico through Thu, and approach the northern
Gulf coast on Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland by late
Fri or Fri night. Re-strengthening is forecast when Delta moves
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thu, and
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some
weakening is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf
coast on Fri. Very heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula trough early Thu which may result
in areas of significant flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is then
expected across portions of the United States Fri through the
weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 19W/20W from the equator to 16N,
moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 11N-16N between 18W-20W.

The tropical wave is along 57W from near the border of Suriname
and Guyana to 23N, moving W around 10 kt. No significant
convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 10N21W. The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 07N53W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60-120 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 25W-40W, and from 05N-07N between
46W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 18N92W. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are noted along and W of the wave axis. Fresh
to strong winds are also noted W of 23N and W of the wave axis,
along with seas of 7-8 ft. Around the outer circulation of Delta,
fresh to strong winds are funneling from the NW Caribbean Sea
through the Yucatan Channel and into the S-central Gulf of Mexico
along with large seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
noted elsewhere, along with 4 to 7 ft seas.

Hurricane Delta near 22.1N 89.5W 977 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at
15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Delta will
move to 23.2N 91.2W Thu morning, 24.8N 92.9W Thu afternoon, 26.7N
93.4W Fri morning, 29.1N 92.9W Fri afternoon, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 31.6N 91.9W Sat morning, then
continue weakening becoming a tropical depression near 33.7N
90.5W by Sat afternoon. Delta will become a remnant low as it
moves near 37.0N 85.5W on Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta which is now in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

A vigorous upper-level low centered over Haiti is inducing
isolated to widely scattered convection from S of 18N between
72W-85W, with additional isolated activity noted across the
Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Fresh to
strong southerly flow is in the far NW Caribbean Sea through the
Yucatan Channel associated with departing Delta, with mainly
gentle to moderate E-SE flow elsewhere across the basin. Seas are
mainly 3-5 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, with 2-4 ft
in the western Caribbean, except seas up to 8-14 ft near the
Yucatan Channel.

Delta will continue to move away from the NW portion of the basin
tonight into Fri. Winds and seas will diminish in the NW
Caribbean through Thu. Building high pressure over the SW N
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds mainly over
the S-central Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W, high pressure at 1018 mb is located near 32N68W, while
a weak 1014 mb low pressure area is located E-SE of Cape Fear,
North Carolina near 33N76W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh
E-SE flow prevails S of 24N, with gentle anticyclonic winds N of
24N. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft NE of the Bahamas, with seas 3 ft or
less W of the Bahamas.

E of 65W, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N62W to 24N64W
with isolated showers W of the trough. The tail-end of a
stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 32N47W to
31N60W. Scattered showers area near the front E of 55W. A 1021
mb high is centered E-SE of the front near 30N43W, with several
troughs noted E-SE of the high with little significance.
Saharan dust is evident over the eastern Atlantic, mainly N of
20N and E of 50W.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move SE off the
Carolinas reaching the northern portion of the basin by the end
of the week enhancing winds/seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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