[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Oct 7 13:16:27 CDT 2020


AXNT20 KNHC 071816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Delta is centered near 21.8N 88.6W at 07/1800 UTC
or 115 nm W of Cabo Catoche Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous strong convection is
observed within 90 to 120 nm of the center, impacting the
northern  Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. Maximum
wave heights are estimated to be around 32 ft near the center of
Delta. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late
Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is
forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within the
hurricane watch area on Friday. A life-threatening storm surge
will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6
to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progreso. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Heavy rainfall will affect portions the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash
flooding. Looking ahead, there is a chance for life-threatening
storm surge and flooding along the Louisiana and Mississippi
coasts starting Fri as Delta moves into the region. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis over Senegal along 16W is moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
along the wave axis from 07N-16N between 16W-21W.

The tropical wave that was analyzed along 56W, moving to the W at
5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted to the
east of the wave axis from 11N-20N between 48-56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 07N52W. Scattered
showers And isolated thunderstorms are seen from 03N-09N between
25W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

A surface trough extends from 24N85W to 18N91W. Scattered
moderate Convection is noted along and west of the trough from
18N-27N and west of 89W. Numerous strong convection covers the
Gulf of Mexico east of 90W and south of 24N associated to Delta,
where there are fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft. Strong
winds and rapidly building seas are noted near the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted elsewhere
within 4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern Gulf and 5 to 7 ft seas in
the western Gulf.

Hurricane Delta near 21.4N 88.0W 975 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW
at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Delta will
move to 22.8N 90.2W this evening, 26.0N 93.3W Thu evening, and
move inland Fri evening. Delta will weaken to a tropical storm
near 33.2N 90.9W Sat morning and to a remnant low by early Sun.
High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of Delta
starting Sat, allowing winds and seas to diminish.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

A vigorous upper-level low centered over the eastern Dominican
Republic is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection to
the south and southeast of the upper low, south of the Mona
Passage to much of the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean,
within light breezes and slight seas over the southwest part of
the basin. Winds and seas will diminish in the northwest
Caribbean through Thu after Delta leave the area.

Major Hurricane Delta will move to 22.8N 90.2W this evening,
26.0N 93.3W Thu evening, and near 28.1N 93.3W by Fri morning.
Delta will weaken to a remnant low by early Sun. Winds and seas
will diminish in the northwest Caribbean through Thu. Building
high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support moderate
to fresh trade winds mainly over the south-central Caribbean by
late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
30N68W to 30N70W to 31N74W. No significant showers are noted
along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast
of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the
central Bahamas, including the Old Bahama Channel. A surface
trough is analyzed along 62W from 23N-29N with no significant
convection. Farther east, a 1021 mb high centered extends east
of the Azores is supporting generally moderate trade winds across
the tropical Atlantic. Several troughs are noted east of 38W.
First trough extends from 30N35W to 26N36W, second trough from
29N26W to 26N30W, and third trough from 23N29W to 18N30W.
Currently, no Significant convection is noted near the troughs.
Saharan dust is evident over the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of
20N and east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, stationary front will persist in
the area through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off
the Carolinas and merge with this front on Thu, then move east
across the northern portion of the basin through the end of the
week.

$$
MTorres
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