[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Delta is centered near 20.6N 86.4W at 07/0900 UTC or
30 nm ENE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is
observed within 90 to 120 nm of the center, impacting Cozumel, the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. Maximum
wave heights are estimated to be around 30 ft near the center of
Delta. Delta will move over the northeast tip of Yucatan and
through the Yucatan Channel into the south-central Gulf by this
afternoon, then continue across the central and northwest Gulf of
Mexico, where it is expected to make landfall along Louisiana by
late Fri. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next few hours. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday, causing the
potential for flash floods and mudslides. Looking ahead, there is
a chance for life-threatening storm surge and flooding along the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts starting Fri as Delta moves into
the region. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis over Senegal along 16W is moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
along the wave axis from 08N-14N.

The tropical wave that was analyzed along 55W, moving to the W at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 13N-15N between 50-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N35W to
09N52W. No  convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

The 1005 mb remnant low of Gamma has dissipated over the Yucatan
Peninsula. A surface trough extends from 21N89W to 24N92W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 18N to 20N between 92W and 94W, where there are fresh
to strong NW winds and seas to 9 ft. Strong winds and building
rapidly building seas are noted near the Yucatan Channel ahead of
Delta. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted elsewhere within
4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern Gulf and 5 to 7 ft seas in the
western Gulf.

High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of Delta
starting Sat, allowing winds and seas to diminish.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

A vigorous upper-level low centered over the eastern Dominican
Republic is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection to
the south and southeast of the upper low, over much of the eastern
Caribbean. Fresh trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the eastern Caribbean, within light breezes and slight seas over
the southwest part of the basin. Winds and seas will diminish in
the northwest Caribbean through Thu after Delta leave the area.
Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds mainly over the south-central
Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
31N65W to 30N70W to 30N77W. No significant showers are noted
along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of
Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the
central Bahamas, including the Old Bahama Channel. A surface
trough is analyzed along 64W from 24N-29N with no significant
convection. Farther east, a 1026 mb high centered east of the
Azores is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the
tropical Atlantic. Some Saharan dust is evident over the eastern
Atlantic, mainly north of 10N and east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, stationary front extending from
31N65W to 30N70W to 30N77W will persist in the area through mid
week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and
merge with this front on Thu, then move east across the northern
portion of the basin through the end of the week.

$$
Christensen
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