[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is located near 17.5N 81.3W at 06/1500 UTC or
287 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center of Delta. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
13N-22N between 80W-87W. Seas are rapidly building near
the center of Delta as the winds increase, and maximum wave
heights are estimated to be 20 to 25 ft. Delta is a major
hurricane. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is
expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands
through early this afternoon, and move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be
an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely
when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening
is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the
wave axis from 15N-23N between 48W-53W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is W of the wave axis over the Leeward and
Windward Islands, partially due to an upper level low over
the E Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 07N40W to 07N54W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

The 1006 mb remnant low of Gamma is just inland over the
N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. The low will dissipate by Wed
morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 19N-28N between 88W-92W. There is still a large are of fresh
to strong northerly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas lingering over the
central and southwest Gulf in the wake of Gamma. Most of these
winds and seas will diminish through late today, except for over
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft are noted in most other locations of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

Dry, subsident air on the western side of the Caribbean upper low
is keeping Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with little to no cloud
cover.

Gentle to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the eastern Caribbean, with light breezes and modest seas over
the southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, Winds and seas will diminish in the wake of
Delta over the northwest Caribbean by late Wed into early Thu,
moderate SE winds through the remainder of the week. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will again become the norm over the eastern
and central Caribbean by mid week, with continued light breezes
and slight seas over the southwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
31N68W to 30N76W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
noted along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing
off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and
Caicos Islands into the southern Bahamas. A surface trough is
analyzed in the central Atlantic along 60W from 22N to 30N. No
significant convection is associated with this system. Farther
east, a 1030 mb high centered near the Azores at 39N21W is
supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic. No major showers or thunderstorms are noted over much of
the central and eastern Atlantic, although some Saharan dust is
evident. The exception is off the coast of southern Morocco and
northern Western Sahara where scattered showers and fresh NE winds
are evident.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will persist
off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will
move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift
northward as a warm front through Sat.

$$
Formosa
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