[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta continues to intensify near 17.5N 81.3W at
06/0900 UTC or 360 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong
convection is ongoing within 75 nm of the center of Delta. in
addition, outer bands on the south side of Delta are evident, with
strong thunderstorms active within 120 nm off the coast of eastern
Honduras and northeast Nicaragua. Seas are rapidly building near
the center of Delta as the winds increase, and maximum wave
heights are estimated to be 20 to 25 ft. Delta will become a major hurricane
as moves through the northwest Caribbean this afternoon, and
will pass into through the Yucatan Channel and northeast tip of
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight before it enters into the south-
central Gulf of Mexico. Delta will continue across the central
Gulf through mid week and is expected to make landfall in
Louisiana by late Fri or early Sat. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N35W to 08N45W
07N55W. No significant convection is observed.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

The remnant low of Gamma is off the north coast of Yucatan, and
will move inland this morning and dissipate by Wed morning. A
clusters of thunderstorms is active just to the west of Gamma,
within about 120 nm off the coast of Merida, Mexico. There is
still a large are of fresh to strong northerly winds and 8 to 12
ft seas lingering over the central and southwest Gulf in the wake
of Gamma. Most of these winds and seas will diminish through late
today, except for over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted in most other locations of
the Gulf.

This will be a brief respite ahead of the approaching
Hurricane Delta, expected to enter the south-central Gulf tonight
and early Wed. Delta will move to 21.8N 88.5W Wed afternoon,
23.0N 90.4W Thu morning, 24.2N 91.5W Thu afternoon, and 25.8N
92.0W Fri morning. Delta is forecast to move inland over south-
central Louisiana Fri night into early Sat. The intensity, size
and track of Delta will generate large seas over most of the
central and western Gulf by mid week, slowly subsiding through
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

An upper low centered just off the Leeward Islands is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and
much of the far eastern Caribbean. Dry, subsident air on the
western side of the upper low is keeping the area from eastern
Cuba to the Virgin Islands with little to no cloud cover.

Outside the main area of Delta, strong W to NW winds are noted
across Belize, over the Gulf of Honduras, and along the Honduran
coast, with seas estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern
Caribbean, with light breezes and modest seas over the southwest
Caribbean.

For the forecast, Winds and seas will diminish in the wake of
Delta over the northwest Caribbean by late Wed into early Thu,
moderate SE winds through the remainder of the week. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will again become the norm over the eastern and
central Caribbean by mid week, with continued light breezes and
slight seas over the southwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 32N66W to 29N75W
then becomes a stationary front to north of Cape Canaveral,
Florida near 29N81W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
noted along the front. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are north of
the front N of the front and W of 75W. Fresh E winds are pulsing
off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos
Islands into the southern Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed
in the central Atlantic along 60W from 22N to 30N. No significant
convection is associated with this system. Farther east, a 1028 mb
high pressure area centered near the Azores at 39N23W is
supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic. No major showers or thunderstorms are noted over much of
the central and eastern Atlantic, although some Saharan dust is
evident. The exception is off the coast of southern Morocco and
northern Western Sahara where scattered showers and fresh NE winds
are evident.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will persist
off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will
move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift
northward as a warm front through Sat.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net