[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
27N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the area that is from 21N to 32N between 48W and
58W.  The low pressure center is non-tropical. Additional
subtropical development is possible during the next day or so,
while the low pressure center drifts south-southwestward.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development, during the weekend, as the system begins to
move north-northeastward. The chance of formation into tropical
cyclone, through 48 hours, is medium.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W and 08N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N18W, to 04N30W, and to 03N49W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 14N
between 20W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico. , within 270 nm to the north and northwest of Cuba and
southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. The cold front from 24 hours ago, now, is
stationary in the Florida Panhandle, and warm from the Alabama
coastal waters to southern Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf
coast, and into south central Texas. Rainshowers are possible,
from 26N southward from 90W eastward. High level clouds are from
26N northward, moving toward the east and the east-northeast.

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of Mexico near
19N96W.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday night. It will reach quickly from the Florida western
panhandle to near 25N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche on
Sunday evening; and to southeast of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday
evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
77W westward. , from Hispaniola westward. Broad surface low
pressure spans Central America. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward from 79W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N from 72W in NW Venezuela,
beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 13N southward from 74W westward. This area also
was being covered by the middle level inverted trough of 24
hours ago.

High pressure to the north of the region will maintain fresh to
strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue, elsewhere, across
most of the basin through the weekend. A strong cold front will
reach the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday night.
The strong cold front will extend from eastern Cuba, to near the
border of Honduras and Nicaragua late on Tuesday. The front will
be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas.
The Wind speeds and the sea heights are expected to diminish on
Tuesday. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are likely to
precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 27N59W, now, is
part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 21N northward between 48W and 56W.

Western Atlantic Ocean high pressure that extends to Florida
will weaken through Saturday, as a weakening cold front moves
across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will begin
to increase in the northwestern waters, beginning on Sunday
afternoon, as a strong cold front moves from the Gulf of Mexico
to northern Florida. The front will move off the northeastern
Florida coast on Monday. The front will reach from near 31N77W
to South Florida by early Mon evening, and from near 31N70W to
the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by late Tuesday.
Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in
behind the front. The wind speeds will diminish on Tuesday, with
the highest of the seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by
late Tuesday. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are likely
to precede the front. Northerly swell will continue to propagate
through the Atlantic Ocean waters and passages, through Friday.

$$
mt
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