[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N- 14N
between 30W- 42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
08N-12N between 45W- 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the far NW Gulf waters.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A ridge extends
from the Atlantic across the Gulf of Mexico from N Florida to the
SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the
3-4 ft range.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf waters on Sun
morning. The front will reach from the Florida western panhandle
to near 25N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening
and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas.
These conditions will diminish Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough. A ridge of high pressure prevails
N of the area over the SW N Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh
to strong winds over the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Moderate winds prevail over the eastern
Caribbean while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the
western Caribbean.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean through Fri morning. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across most of the
basin through Sun. A strong cold front will reach the
northwestern Caribbean Mon night and extend from eastern Cuba to
near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua late on Tue. The front
will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building
seas. Winds are expected to diminish to mainly fresh speeds Tue
and seas are expected to subside to by late Tue night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to a 1010 mb low near
28N58W, then from the low to near 20N56W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm NE semicircle
of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 9-12 ft prevail
within 180 nm NW and 390 nm NE quadrants of the low. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, with seas in
the 6-9 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas 8-10 ft
prevail N of 20N and E of 50W. Moderate to fresh trades, and seas
of 6-8 ft, prevail over the tradewind zone S of 20N.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to
Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves
across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will begin
to increase over the northwest waters beginning Sun afternoon as
a strong cold front moves from the Gulf of mexico to across
northern Florida. The front will move off the northeast Florida
coast Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon
evening and from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds and
building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish
Tue, with the highest of the seas shifting to northeast of the
Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely to precede the front. Northerly swell will continue to
propagate through the Atlantic waters and passages through Fri.

$$
AL
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