[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 66W and from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh trades E of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 80W and from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave combined with a middle
level inverted trough is producing scattered moderate convection
over the W Caribbean, mainly west of 78W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W and from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N12W
to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 01N50W. Scattered
showers are noted along the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to
fresh NE to E winds across the eastern half of the basin and NE
winds of similar magnitude in the Bay of Campeche. Fair weather
conditions are basin-wide being supported by dry air subsidence
from aloft. Only patches of shallow moisture are within 60 nm off
the coast of Veracruz associated with a surface trough. Seas are
in the 3 to 5 ft range and are expected to continue through the
middle of the week.

A weak cold front will move across the E Gulf Mon and Tue.
Another weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are analyzed in the Caribbean. Please, see
Tropical Waves section above for details.

Fresh NE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean as noted in recent
scatterometer data. These winds will diminish by this evening,
however will resume on Mon evening as high pressure builds over
the Gulf of Mexico and the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of a
cold front. Unsettled weather associated with the waves will
affect central America and the west Caribbean through mid-week.

Large northerly swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters
east of the Leeward Islands through Mon. Trade winds will increase
over the central Caribbean Tue through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds
across the regional waters E of Florida, the Bahamas, and the
Straits of Florida. To the east, a broad trough of low pressure
extending from Turks and Caicos Islands to near Bermuda continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low pressure
area could form within the next couple of days as the trough
lifts northward, and there is a slight chance it could briefly
acquire subtropical characteristics early this week before merging
with a cold front. Later this week, this system may have a second
opportunity to develop subtropical characteristics if it becomes
separated from the front and meanders over the central Atlantic.
High pressure, in the wake of the front, will bring another round
of fresh NE-E winds across the W Atlantic Tue night into Wed.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

$$
ERA
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