[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are between
Puerto Rico and Venzuela. Lateste scatterometer data show fresh
trades E of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave combined with a middle
level inverted trough is producing scattered moderate convection
over the NW Caribbean, including Belize ajacent waters and Gulf of
Honduras.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave extends southward into
the EPAC region. Scattered moderate convection associated with
this wave combined with a low pressure recently formed W of Costa
Rica is affecting Costa Rica and portions of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 03N41W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N-10N between 13W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to
fresh NE to E winds across the eastern half of the basin and NE
winds of similar magnitude in the Bay of Campeche. Fair weather
conditions are basin-wide being supported by dry air subisdence
from aloft. Only patches of shallow moisture are within 60 nm off
the coast of Veracruz associated with a surface trough. Seas are
in the 3 to 5 ft range and are expected to continue through the
middle of the week.

A weak cold front will move across the E Gulf Mon and Tue.
Another weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are analyzed in the Caribbean Sea. Please, see
Tropical Waves section for details.

Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, due to the
gradient between a broad area of low pressure associated with a
tropical wave and strong high pressure N of the area. These winds
will dominish Sun evening, however will resume Mon evening as
strong high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the SW N
Atlantic waters. Unsettled weather associated with the wave and a
low recently formed W of Costa Rica will affect central America
through at least Wed.

Large northerly swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters
east of the Leeward Islands through Mon. Trade winds will increase
over the central Caribbean Tue through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the regional waters E
of Florida, the Bahamas, and over the Straits of Florida.

A broad trough of low pressure located near and north of the Turks
and Caicos Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A low pressure area could form within the next couple
of days as the trough lifts northward, and there is a slight chance
it could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics early this week
before merging with a cold front. Later this week, this system may
have a second opportunity to develop subtropical characteristics if
it becomes separated from the front and meanders over the central
Atlantic. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring another
round of fresh NE-E winds across the SW N Atlantic Tue night into
Wed.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region.

$$
Ramos
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