[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/51W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 930 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, from 10N southward. This
precipitation also is within 520 nm to the north of the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is
from 14N to 20N within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/81W, from 20N
southward to Panama, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is
from 14N to 20N, within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
and from 14N northward from the tropical wave westward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from
69W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from 08N14W, to
07N20W, 04N30W, to 03N35W, 01N40W, to 01N46W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 02N to 04N between the
Prime Meridian and 02W, and from 03N to 04N between 13W and 16W.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is
elsewhere from the ITCZ to 10N between 23W and 60W, and within
180 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 15W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front passes through the coast of Cuba
near 22N78W, through the Yucatan Channel, to 22N92W, into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the northern coast of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 21N southward, in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward.

A surface ridge extends from Georgia, to southern Mississippi,
to the deep South of Texas.

Strong winds and rough seas can be expected in the central Gulf
of Mexico, and in the Straits of Florida, as high pressure holds
to the north of the area behind a stationary front, that passes
through the Yucatan Channel. The winds and seas will diminish
through late Saturday, across the basin. Weak high pressure will
extend across the basin into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One tropical wave
is along 68W/69W. The second tropical wave is along 79W/81W. All
the precipitation that is in the Caribbean Sea is related to the
tropical waves.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia,
southwestward, and beyond 07N80W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N
southward from 70W westward.

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong winds and
large seas in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The winds and seas
will diminish gradually, through Saturday, as the high pressure
weakens. Large northerly swell will impact the Atlantic Ocean
waters to the east of the Leeward Islands early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W, to 31N51W. A stationary
front continues from 31N51W, to 27N60W 23N70W, to 22N78W in
Cuba. The front becomes dissipating stationary, and it continues
westward, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 200 nm to
the south of the front between 60W and 62W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere within 220 nm to the south of the
front, and within 270 nm to the north of the front from 67W
eastward.

The current stationary front will weaken through Friday. High
pressure to the north of the front will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds across most of the region through Friday. A trough
will form to the east of the Bahamas by Friday. It is possible
that a weak low pressure area may develop between the northern
Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week.

$$
mt
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