[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N52W to
the southern Bahamas to north-central Cuba near 23N78W. Scattered
showers are noted within 180 nm either side of the front. Strong
high pressure continues to build in behind the front supporting
strong northeast winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are forecast
from 22N-27N and west of the front through this evening, and from
22N-27N between the front and the Bahamas. Large and hazardous
seas are possible in the Gulf Stream between the Bahamas and
Florida through the Straits of Florida, with large fresh seas also
developing NE of the Bahamas through the end of the week in the
continued northeast flow. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 47W from 15N southward, moving westward
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 00N-11N between 35W-55W.

A tropical wave is along 66W from 20N southward to central
Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
ahead of the wave over Hispaniola coinciding with upper level
diffluent flow.

A tropical wave is along 78W from near eastern Jamaica to eastern
Panama, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the wave is affecting Jamaica adjacent
waters and the Windward passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N20W to 04N34W to
05N47W. For information on convection, see the Tropical Waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong autumn high pressure will continue to build southward
across the Gulf of Mexico behind a stationary front that extends
from western Cuba to across the Yucatan Channel and to the Bay of
Campeche. The high pressure will continue to create a very tight
gradient between it and the front leading to strong northeast
winds. Near gale-force winds may occur in the Straits of Florida.
Hazardous conditions are expected between the wind waves against
the flow of the Gulf Stream through the Straits of Florida, and
due to a southeast swell propagating through the Yucatan Channel.
Seas will be highest in the Straits of Florida today, 10-15 ft.

Outside of the near gale conditions described above, moderate to
fresh E-SE flow and seas of 6-9 ft in NE swell are noted north of
22N and west of 90W, with fresh to strong NE flow and 7-10 ft seas
in NE swell elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish through late
Sat across the basin. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf and stall late Sun through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1011 mb low pressure area prevails in the southwest Caribbean
north of the Panama Canal near 11N80W. Development of this system
is not expected while it moves little over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next several days. This system is
expected to produce locally heavy rains and possible flooding over
portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and northern
Colombia during the next few days. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

Scattered showers and isolated tstms prevails off the east coast
of the Yucantan Peninsula and Belize, ahead of a stationary front
that passes just north of the Yucatan Channel into the Bay of
Campeche. The front will gradually dissipate through Fri. High
pressure building N of the front is supporting strong winds and
large seas over the far northwestern Caribbean. These winds and
seas will diminish through Fri as the high pressure weakens,
leaving generally moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas
across the basin by early next week. Large northerly swell will
impact the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in
effect for the waters from 22N-27N west of a stationary front.

Southeast of the stationary front described above, mainly
moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 6-10 ft in mixed swell.
The stationary front will continue to weaken this evening, then
lift NW before dissipating on Fri. High pressure N of the front
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds across most the region
through Fri, with frequent gusts to gale force from 22N-27N
through tonight.

A trough will form E of the Bahamas by Fri, and may become a weak
low pressure area between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda by
early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical
characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves
northeastward. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

$$
Ramos
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