[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.9N 22.6W at 13/2100 UTC,
or 430 nm SSE of the Azores, moving E at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N
and W of the center from 31N to 35W between 20W to 24W. A turn
toward the east-southeast along with a slowing of forward speed
is expected tonight. A continued slow east-southeastward motion
is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply
toward the north by early next week. Weakening is expected
through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant low on
Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 13.8N 74.3W
at 13/2100 UTC, or 290 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica, moving WSW
at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
in the southern semicircle from 11N to 14N between 71W to 77W.
Scattered moderate convection is in the NE quadrant from 14N to
16N between 72W to 74W. Iota will continue moving WSW through
early Saturday. A westward to west- northwestward motion at a
slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late
Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota
will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day
or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras late Sunday and Monday. Steady to rapid strengthening is
likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a
major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Through
Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
Haiti, Jamaica, and Central America. Flooding and landslides from
heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given
recovery efforts are underway after Hurricane Eta. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 57W from 21N
southward and is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N15W to 06N26W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N26W to 07N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between
16W to 34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
north of the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 35W to 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico with fair
weather prevailing through the basin. Moderate NNE winds are
noted in the eastern Gulf with moderate E winds in the NW Gulf
and light winds elsewhere. Seas range 2-4 ft.

High pres will remain N of the area through Sun. A cold front
will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central Gulf
by Mon afternoon, then move SE of the basin late Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Iota.

Isolated thunderstorms are noted across southeastern Cuba and
portions of Jamaica. Otherwise, moderate trades are in the
eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate N winds are in the
western Caribbean. Outside of Iota, seas range 1-3 ft in the NW
Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean.

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Iota will move in a general WSW
motion through Sat and slowly strengthen, reaching near
13.7N76.2W Sat afternoon, then become a hurricane near 13.9N77.5W
late Sat night, then strengthen steadily through Mon as it
approaches the coast along the border of Nicaragua and Honduras,
reaching near 15N82.8W Mon afternoon as a major hurricane. Very
active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the SW
Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends across The Bahamas and southern Florida from
30N75W to 24N82W with showers noted along it. Otherwise, surface
ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near
34N51W. Moderate winds are noted across the Atlantic with seas
ranging 4-8 ft.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta is moving NE and well offshore
of Cape Hatteras, and will drag a trailing trough across the NW
waters southeastward across much of the basin through the
weekend. Fresh to strong S to SE winds and associated seas will
decrease through this evening across NW portions as Eta moves
farther northeastward. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast Mon, shifting SE through Tue night.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net