[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 23.8W at 13/1500 UTC
or 410 nm SSE of the Azores moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N to
35N between 18W and 25W. A turn toward the east-southeast along
with a slowing of forward speed is expected later today. A continued
slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the
weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next
week. Little change in strength is forecast today. Weakening is
expected through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant
low on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Thirty-One formed in the central Caribbean.
Thirty-One is centered near 14.2N 74.3W at 13/1500 UTC or 270 nm
SSE of Kingston Jamaica, moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection isolated
strong convection is from 11N to 16N between 67W and 81W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 67W and
79W. On the forecast track, the system will move across the
central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the
coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and
Monday. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical
storm later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is likely
over the weekend, and the system could be near major hurricane
strength when it approaches Central America.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
18N with axis near 53W and is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 23N between 46W and 54W.Latest
scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N26W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 06N26W to 06N38W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 0N to 09N between 12W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather conditions are across the gulf being supported by
middle level dry air subsidence and surface ridging building over
the northern basin. The ridge is supporting gentle to moderate
NNE winds E of 90W and light to gentle return flow over ther
western half of the basin.

High pres will remain N of the area through early Sun. A cold
front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central
Gulf by late Mon, pushing SE of the basin late Tue night. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are forecast across the basin Monday afternoon
through early Tue. The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure that will build in the wake of the front and current
Tropical Depression Thirty-One will support fresh to strong NNE
winds across the southern and eastern gulf Tue through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Newly formed Tropical Depression Thirty-One is near 14.2N 74.3W
at 10 AM EST moving WSW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Thirty-One will strengthen to a tropical storm near
14.0N 75.0W this evening, move to 13.8N 76.0W Sat morning, 13.9N
77.3W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.1N 79.0W Sun
morning, 14.5N 80.9W Sun evening, and 14.9N 82.7W Mon morning.
Thirty-One will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland
near 15.2N 85.7W early Tue. Very active weather will persist
across coastal Colombia and the SW Caribbean through the weekend.

Please see the Special Features section above for further details
on Tropical Depression Thirty-One.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta is moving NE and offshore of Cape
Hatteras, and will drag a trailing trough across the basin through
the weekend. Fresh to strong S to SE winds and associated seas
will decrease through this evening across NW portions of the SW N
Atlantic as Eta moves farther northeastward. A cold front will
move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, shifting SE through Tue night.

Tropical Storm Theta is near 31.7N 23.8W 993 mb at 10 AM EST
moving E at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Theta will move to 31.5N 22.2W this evening, 31.3N 20.4W Sat
morning, 31.0N 19.1W Sat evening, 31.1N 18.3W Sun morning, weaken
to a remnant low near 31.3N 18.1W Sun evening, and 32.8N 18.0W Mon
morning. Theta will change little in intensity as it moves near
37.4N 15.6W early Tue. Please see the Special Features section
above for details on Tropical Storm Theta.

Otherwise, surface high pressure and mostly fair weather dominates
the subtropical central Atlantic waters while a tropical wave east
of the Lesser Antilles is generating a broad area of showers and
isolated tstms. Please see further details in the Tropical Waves
section.

$$
Ramos
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