[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.7N 84.8W at 09/2100 UTC
or 120 nm WSW of the Dry Tortugas Florida moving SW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 160 nm SW quadrant and 200 nm NE quadrant
from the center. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday
and a slow northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wed.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 120 nm from the center. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Eta and
high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states is resulting in a
large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across
the western Atlantic, west of 67W. Within this area, gale force
winds are currently occurring west of 78W and north of 29N. The
gale warning will remain in effect for this area until Tue
morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

North Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low is currently near
28N41W and is producing gale-force winds. Shower and
thunderstorm activity near the center is showing signs of
organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 26N-31N between 38W-48W. The low has a high chance of
developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next
48 hours while the system moves eastward. Regardless of whether
it becomes tropical, the low is forecast to produce gale force
winds within a few hours N of 28N between 42W-45W. See the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over central Caribbean along 66W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
West of the wave axis from 10N-19N between 64W-70W. This
tropical wave is forecast to move westward, where an area of low
pressure could form by Thu. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
slowly westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
12N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 03N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-09N
Between 32W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near
23.7N 83.8W 995 mb at 4 PM EST is moving SW at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. A large upper-level low is
centered over T.S. Eta aiding in wrapping dry air into the
circulation from the west semicircle. West of 90W, mainly gentle
wind speeds prevail with no significant rainfall seen. The NW
Gulf has seas of 5 to 6 ft, while the SW Gulf seas of 2 to 4 ft
prevail.

Tropical Storm Eta will begin to slowly strengthen as it moves to
near 23.2N 85.3W late tonight, to near 23.4N 85.5W early Tue
afternoon and to near 24.3N 85.5W late Tue night. Eta will turn
north-northeast and begin to weaken as it moves to near 25.6N
85.4W early Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt
gusts 65 kt, to near 26.5N 85.6W late Wed night, to near 27.2N
85.4W early Thu afternoon, then weaken to a depression near 28.6N
85.6W Sat afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed
and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night,
then lift back north as a warm front Sat.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A distant T.S. Eta feeder band is over NW Caribbean into central
Cuba producing scattered moderate convection from 17N-21N between
77W-83W. Due to an area of strong upper-level diffluence over
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 14N-19N between 71W-75W, and
about 160 nm east of the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean producing convection
east and west of the axis. See Special Features above. The
tropical wave will move through the central Caribbean during the
next couple of days during which low pressure could form from it.
Beyond the next two days, atmospheric conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
slowly westward. Expect for winds and seas to increase over most
sections of the central Caribbean beginning on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for information on
The Gale Warning in the western Atlantic.

Upper level diffluence is east of the Bahamas producing
scattered moderate convection from 23N-31N between 62W-78W.
A 1027 mb high is centered 36N67W extends southeastward into
21N55W. Strong pressure gradient between the high and the
T.S. Eta will continue to induce fresh to strong SE winds W
Of 64W including the Florid Straits. A gale warning is in effect
off the coast of NE Florida.

Farther east, a 1004 mb low near 28N41W is being monitored for
tropical cyclone potential. See the Special Features section
above for details. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high is centered near
37N15W over the NE Atlantic and extends to 21N30W.

Strong to near gale winds will prevail over the western Atlantic
the next couple of days, with gale force winds continuing off
the coast of northern Florida today and tonight. These winds
will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic through Tue
before gradually subsiding through late Thu night.

$$
MTorres
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