[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 24.6N 83.4W at 09/1500 UTC
or 26 nm WSW of the Dry Tortugas Florida moving SW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the center. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere in bands from 23N-28N between 81W-85W to
include S Florida. Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued
for all of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, excluding
the Dry Tortugas. Eta is moving toward the southwest and this
motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to
continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on
Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move away
from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.
Little change in strength is expected today and tonight. Some
slight strengthening is forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday,
followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Flash flooding and
river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will
be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast Florida.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas
and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next
several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central
Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Eta and
high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states is resulting in a
large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the
western Atlantic, west of 67W. Within this area, gale force
winds are currently occurring west of 78W and north of 29N. The
gale warning will remain in effect for this area until Tue
morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

North Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low is currently near
28N45W and is producing winds of 20-25 kt from 26N-31N between
41W- 48W. Shower and thunderstorm activity near the center is
showing signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 26N-31N between 38W-48W. The low has a
medium chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours while the system moves
eastward. Regardless of whether it becomes tropical, the low is
forecast to produce gale force winds within a few hours N of 28N
between 42W-45W. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 64W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
east of the wave axis from 09N-17N between 57W-62W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the wave axis
from 13N-19N between 68W-70W to include E Hispaniola. This
tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean
Sea, where an area of low pressure could form by Thu.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 04N30W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough
from 03N-08N between 00W-13W. Scattered moderate convection is N
of the ITCZ from 03N-09N between 33W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Eta is W of the Dry Torgugas moving SW. See
above. A large upper-level low is centered over T.S. Eta aiding
in wrapping dry air into the circulation from the west
semicircle.

West of 90W, mainly gentle wind speeds prevail. The NW Gulf has
seas of 4 to 6 ft, while the SW Gulf seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.
No significant precipitation is seen west of 88W.

Eta will move to near 23.9N 84.7W this evening, then begin to
strengthen near 23.6N 85.3W early Tue with maximum sustained
winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near 24.5N 85.4W Tue evening
with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Eta will
maintain intensity as it slowly moves north-northeastward
reaching near 25.6N 85.5W early Wed with maximum sustained winds
55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 26.5N 85.3W Wed evening, then begin
to gradually weaken as it reaches near 27.2N 85.1W early Thu
with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt and to near 28.4N
84.4W early Fri with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become
stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A distant T.S. Eta feeder band is over central Cuba and the NW
Caribbean producing scattered moderate convection from 19N-23N
between 78W-81W.

Strong upper-level diffluence is over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
enhancing showers.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean producing convection
east and west of the axis. See above.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is off the coast of NE Florida. A large area of near gale
winds are over the NW Atlantic. See above.

Upper level diffluence is east of the Bahamas producing
scattered moderate convection from 23N-28N between 70W-77W.

Farther east, a 1007 mb low near 28N45W is being monitored for
tropical cyclone potential. See the Special Features section
above for details. Elsewhere, a 1026 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 34N20W.

Strong to near gale winds will prevail over the western Atlantic
the next couple of days, with gale force winds continuing off
the coast of northern Florida today and tonight. These winds
will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic through Tue
before gradually subsiding through late Thu night.

$$
Formosa
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