[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The
center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 05/0900 UTC, is inland over
Honduras near 14.5N 87.0W. ETA is moving toward the WNW, or 300
degrees, at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 150 nm to 360
nm from the center in the E semicircle, in the coastal waters from
Honduras to Costa Rica; and from 150 nm to 250 nm from the center
in the NW quadrant in Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala. Scattered
moderate to isolate/widely scattered strong is within 180 nm of SW
Cuba. Other isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere,
from Hispaniola westward, including in Central America. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for
more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Precipitation: Isolated
showers are noted from 09N to 10N between 41W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 15N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
to strong is from 02N to 09N between 50W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W to 10N20W to 06N27W. The ITCZ continues from 06N27W to
05N40W to 05N50W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate isolated
strong is from 03N to 11N between 10W and 35W, and from 12N
southward between 44W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to 22N98W in coastal
Mexico. Rain showers are possible, to the south of the line that
runs from the Florida Keys, to 23N90W in the south central Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 20N97W. Precipitation that
may occur east of 90W is related to Tropical Depression ETA.

Strong high pressure, extending into the region from the western
Atlantic Ocean, will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in the
southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The wind
speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
during the upcoming weekend. The remnant low of Tropical
Depression ETA will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on
Friday night in the NW Caribbean Sea. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Florida Straits on Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The
center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 05/0900 UTC, is inland over
Honduras near 14.5N 87.0W. ETA is moving toward the WNW, or 300
degrees, at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 150 nm to 360
nm from the center in the E semicircle, in the coastal waters from
Honduras to Costa Rica; and from 150 nm to 250 nm from the center
in the NW quadrant in Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala. Scattered
moderate to isolate/widely scattered strong is within 180 nm of SW
Cuba. Other isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere,
from Hispaniola westward, including in Central America. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for
more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

Tropical Depression Eta will become a remnant low and move to
15.0N 87.8W this afternoon, 16.2N 87.8W Fri morning, strengthen to
a tropical storm near 17.4N 86.3W Fri afternoon, 18.5N 84.7W Sat
morning, 19.6N 82.9W Sat afternoon, 21.0N 81.0W Sun morning, and
change little in intensity as it moves to 23.5N 79.5W early Mon.
The remnant low of Tropical Depression Eta will re-intensify into
a tropical cyclone on Friday in the NW Caribbean. Tropical storm
conditions are possible south of Cuba in the NW Caribbean this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N52W to 28N60W to 23N70W to
Cuba near 22N78W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm
to the north of the stationary front. Similar precipitation is
from 22N northward between 42W and the stationary front.

A cold front is along 31N/32N between 56W and 71W. Precipitation:
rain showers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold
front.

The stationary front will dissipate gradually today. The remnant
low of Tropical Depression Eta will re-intensify into a tropical
cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean near 17.4N 86.3W, and move to
18.5N 84.7W Sat morning, 19.6N 82.9W Sat afternoon, 21.0N 81.0W
Sun morning, and change little in intensity as it moves to 23.5N
79.5W early Mon. Tropical storm conditions are possible west of
the Bahamas Sunday through Monday. Large seas are expected in the
western Atlantic Saturday night through Monday.

$$
Mundell
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