[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 05 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The
center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 05/0300 UTC, is near 14.2N
86.3W. This position is also about 100 nm/185 km to the SSE of
La Ceiba in Honduras. ETA is moving toward the WNW, or 285
degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to
40 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
150 nm to 360 nm from the center in the E semicircle, in the
coastal waters from Honduras to Costa Rica; and from 150 nm to
250 nm from the center in the NW quadrant in Honduras, Belize,
and Guatemala. Scattered moderate to isolate/widely scattered
strong is within 180 nm of SW Cuba. Other isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere, from Hispaniola westward, including
in Central America. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.
Rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life- threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, southeastern Mexico, Jamaica,
and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.  Precipitation: no
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 01N to 05N between 51W
and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N20W, and 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N
to 07N between 26W and 38W, and along 05N/06N between 41W and
50W.  Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 11N between 10W and 36W, and from 12N
southward between 45W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, TO 22N98W in coastal
Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, to the south of the line that
runs from the Florida Keys, to 23N90W in the south central Gulf
of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 20N97W. Any possible
precipitation that may be from 90W eastward is related to
Tropical Depression ETA.

Strong high pressure, extending into the region from the western
Atlantic Ocean, will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in the
southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The wind
speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
during the upcoming weekend. The remnant low of Tropical
Depression ETA will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on
Friday night in the NW Caribbean Sea. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Florida Straits on Saturday night and Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The
center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 05/0300 UTC, is near 14.2N
86.3W. This position is also about 100 nm/185 km to the SSE of
La Ceiba in Honduras. ETA is moving toward the WNW, or 285
degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to
40 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
150 nm to 360 nm from the center in the E semicircle, in the
coastal waters from Honduras to Costa Rica; and from 150 nm to
250 nm from the center in the NW quadrant in Honduras, Belize,
and Guatemala. Scattered moderate to isolate/widely scattered
strong is within 180 nm of SW Cuba. Other isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere, from Hispaniola westward, including
in Central America. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.
Rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life- threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, southeastern Mexico, Jamaica,
and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba.

Tropical Depression Eta near 14.2N 86.3W 1003 mb at 10 PM EST
moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Eta will become a remnant low and move to 15.0N 87.3W Thu
morning, 16.1N 87.8W Thu evening, 17.2N 86.8W Fri morning,
strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.2N 85.5W Fri evening,
19.3N 83.7W Sat morning, 20.4N 82.0W Sat evening, and move to
near 23.3N 79.9W late Sun. The remnant low of Tropical
Depression Eta will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone Fri
night in the  NW Caribbean. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the NW Caribbean Sea, to the south of Cuba, during
the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across most of the western Caribbean Sea, through
Saturday. Strong NE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean Sea
overnight. The trade winds will diminish in the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday and Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N52W, to 28N60W, to 23N70W,
to Cuba near 22N80W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 300 nm to the north of the stationary front. Similar
precipitation is from 22N northward between 42W and the
stationary front.

A cold front is along 31N/32N between 59W and 72W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the cold front.

the current stationary front, from the southern Bahamas into
Cuba, will dissipate gradually, through Thursday. The remnant
low of Tropical Depression Eta in Central America will re-
intensify into a tropical cyclone on Friday night in the NW
Caribbean Sea. Tropical storm conditions are possible west of
the Bahamas from Saturday night through Sunday night. Large seas
are expected in the western Atlantic Ocean from Saturday night
through Monday.

$$
mt
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