[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.1N 82.7W AT 03/0300 UTC,
or about 60 nm SSE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua/Honduras
border, moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
927 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160
kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 11N-20N between 74W-88W. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua
within the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of
Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua
through Wednesday night, and then move across central portions
of Honduras on Thursday. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 12 hours, and Eta could become a
category 5 hurricane before it makes landfall. Weakening will
begin after the cyclone moves inland. Catastrophic wind damage
is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning within the next few hours. Rainfall can
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of
Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding is possible
across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti,
and the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in
areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning
area. For more information on the marine hazards associated with
Eta, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Also, please
refer to the NHC Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building
southeastward over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce
strong northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force
west of 78W through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build to 13 ft off
the coast of Florida. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected to continue over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu
due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Eta in the
western Caribbean and the aforementioned strong high pressure.
Strong to near gale force winds will also develop over the
Straits of Florida with frequent gusts by tonight through
04/0000 UTC. Seas will build through 16 ft through Wed evening.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your
local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal
waters forecasts.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 01N to 15N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N-
11N between 30W-40W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 01N to 11N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N
between 45W-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ
begins near 08N18W and continues to 06N31W. The ITCZ resumes
west of a tropical wave near 06N34W to 06N43W to 02N48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on a gale
warning over the Straits of Florida.

Strong high pressure continues to build across the basin and
supports fresh to strong winds over the entire gulf, except for
near gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the 8
to 10 ft range. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over
the southeastern Gulf waters tonight through Wed due to the
combination between the strong high pressure and Hurricane Eta
in
the western Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Eta. Outside Eta, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue to cover a good portion of the
western and central Caribbean through the end of the week
while strong to near gale northeast winds remain over the
northwestern Caribbean through early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front is sweeping across the western Atlantic. The
front extends from 31N64W to the northern Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida near 23N80W. Strong to near gale-force NNW winds are
across the western Atlantic behind the front off the Florida
coast. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the basin with
moderate to fresh winds in the central Atlantic.

The cold front will stall from near 27N65W to the central Bahamas
and to central Cuba Tue night before gradually dissipating
through Wed night. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale
force are expected west of 78W through early Tue. Otherwise,
Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and building
seas are expected behind the front and affect both the Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida through Thu as strong high pressure
builds across the region in the wake of the front.

$$
Formosa
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