[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Eta is centered near 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100 UTC,
or about 60 nm ESE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua/Honduras
border, moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140
kt. Numerous strong convection is from 13N to 16N between 80W
and 84W. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 21N
between 74W and 89W. Peak seas are currently 30 ft. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall
along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area
tonight or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move
farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night,
and then move across central portions of Honduras on Thursday. Eta
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast until Eta reaches the
coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin after the system moves
inland. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore. For more information on the marine hazards
associated with Eta, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Through Friday, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, notably NE Nicragua and
eastern Honduras, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands. In addition, a potentially catastrophic and
life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is
expected along portions of the NE coast of Nicaragua near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall. For more
information on the heavy rainfall associated with Eta and other
hazards, please refer to the NHC Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southeastward
over Florida and the western Atlantic will produce strong
northeast to east winds with frequent gusts to gale force west of
78W through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build to 13 ft off the coast of
Florida. Strong to near gale force winds are expected to continue
over the southeastern Gulf Tue through Thu due to the pressure
gradient between Hurricane Eta in the western Caribbean and the
aforementioned strong high pressure. Strong to near gale force
winds will also develop over the Straits of Florida with frequent
gusts by tonight through 04/0000 UTC. Seas will build through 16
ft through Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details and your
local NWS office at wwww.weather.gov for details on the coastal
waters forecasts.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure across the basin
is supporting minimum gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico. These winds are diminishing to near gale force tonight.
However, fresh to strong winds N to NE winds will prevail over the
SW Gulf through Tue evening. Seas are expected to be in the 8 to
11 ft range. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 01N to 11N with axis near 31W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 10N between 27W and 38W.

A tropical wave extends from 01N to 11N with axis near 49W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the wave from 5N-10N between 42W-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ
begins near 08N18W and continues along 05N30W, then continues
west of a tropical wave near 05N33W to 00N46W. For convection
information, see the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information a gale warning
for the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Strong high pressure continues to build across the basin and
supports fresh to strong winds over the entire gulf, except for
near gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the 8
to 10 ft range. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over
the southeastern Gulf waters tonight through Wed due to the
combination between the strong high pressure and Hurricane Eta in
the western Caribbean. Frequent gusts to gale force are likely in
the Straits of Florida tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Eta.

Eta will move to 14.1N 83.1W Tue morning, inland to 14.0N 83.7W
Tue afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
14.0N 84.5W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 14.2N 85.5W Wed afternoon, become a remnant low
and move to 14.7N 86.9W Thu morning, and 15.5N 88.3W Thu
afternoon. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves near 16.7N
88.1W Fri afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front is sweeping across the western Atlantic. The
front extends from 31N67W to the northern Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida. Strong to near gale-force NNW winds are across the
western Atlantic behind the front off the Florida coast. Otherwise,
high pressure extends across the basin with moderate to fresh
winds in the central Atlantic.

The cold front will sweep across the rest of the SW N Atlantic forecast
area through Tue, then stall from near 27N65W to the central
Bahamas Tue night before dissipating Wed night. Strong to near
gale force north to northwest winds and building seas are expected
to continue to affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
through Thu as strong high pressure builds across the region in
the wake of the front. Northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale
force are expected west of 78W tonight.

$$
Ramos
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