[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre has developed in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean. The gyre will move northward, gradually, toward
Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend.
The gyre will continue to push abundant moisture into parts of
Central America through the weekend, and into the next week.
Heavy rainfall is likely in Central America, especially from
northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. Heavy
rainfall will bring the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest
amounts of rainfall, especially in the areas of mountainous
terrain. Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather service for more information.

...Broad low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean...

A 1016 mb low pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 29N57W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
28N59W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 100
nm to 200 nm NW of the center in the NW quadrant. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm of the
center. Additional development of this system is possible, and a
subtropical depression may form today, as the low pressure
center moves generally northward. The organization of the low
pressure center has not changed substantially during the past
several hours. More development is not expected by tonight due
to unfavorable environmental conditions. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 9 AM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the
Tropical Weather Outlook,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea, along 80W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate has been in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, during
the last 24 hours, in an area of broad surface low pressure. The
tropical wave will move through the western Caribbean Sea during
the next two days, then absorbed into the Central American Gyre.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 08N21W, to 07N26W, and to 05N29W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N29W, to 02N42W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 04N from 04W eastward,
from Africa southward between 04W and 08W, and from 05N to 08N
between 20W and 24W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the ITCZ to 09N between 24W and 40W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through central Alabama and southern
Mississippi, to SE Louisiana. Precipitation: rain showers are
possible within 60 nm on either side of the front.

An upper level trough extends from interior sections of Mexico
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 26N
southward from 85W westward. Areas of precipitation have been
forming in the SW Gulf of Mexico during the last 6 to 9 hours or
so, followed by warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating
precipitation, followed by more areas developing precipitation.

The tail end of the cold front will move into the northern Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. The front will then stall and
dissipate in the east central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. It
is possible that the wind speeds and the sea heights may
increase in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by mid-week, as low
pressure forms more to the south.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section,  for more information
about the potential for heavy rainfall in Central America,
during the next few days.

Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and remnant showers, are
in the NW Caribbean Sea, related to what has been moving from
the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
from the SW Gulf of Mexico upper level trough and clouds and
precipitation.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea. The upper level wind flow is at the
southern end of the upper level trough that extends from the
central Atlantic Ocean, southwestward. This is the same upper
level trough that is near the 1015 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure centered near 28N56W.

The tropical wave that is south of central Cuba will move across
the western Caribbean Sea through Sunday. The wind speeds and
the sea heights will increase in the Gulf of Honduras, early
next week, as broad low pressure forms in the northern sections
of Central America and southern Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 28N56W. The
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
22N northward from 36W eastward. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Weak high pressure to the north of the area will shift eastward
through Sunday. The area of high pressure will move eastward, in
advance of a cold front that is forecast to move to the south of
30N Sunday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to Palm
Beach Florida on Monday. The front will stall, and dissipate
along 25N through mid-week.

$$
mt/dbm
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