[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre has developed in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean. The gyre will move northward, gradually, toward
Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend.
The gyre will continue to push abundant moisture into parts of
Central America through the weekend, and into the next week.
Heavy rainfall is likely in parts of Central America, especially
from northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. Heavy
rainfall will bring the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest
amounts of rainfall, especially in the areas of mountainous
terrain. Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather service for more information.

...Broad low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean...

A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 28N56W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
28N59W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 100
nm to 200 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere within 400 nm of the center in
the eastern semicircle, and within 300 nm of the center in the
western semicircle. Additional development of this system is
possible. It is possible that a subtropical depression may form
tonight or on Saturday, as the low pressure center moves
generally northward. The organization of the low pressure center
has not changed substantially during the past several hours. It
is possible, still, that a subtropical depression may form
tonight or tomorrow, while the system moves generally northward.
More development is not expected after that time due to
unfavorable environmental conditions. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Saturday, or
earlier, if necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the
Tropical Weather Outlook,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea, along 78W/79W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate has been in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, already, during the last 24 hours or so, in an area of
broad surface low pressure. The tropical wave will move through
the rest of the Caribbean Sea during the next few days, before
it is absorbed into the Central American Gyre, eventually.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 08N20W, to 07N26W, and to 05N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N30W, to 02N42W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 04N from 04W eastward,
from Africa southward between 04W and 08W, and from 05N to 08N
between 20W and 24W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the ITCZ to 09N between 24W and 40W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is passing through the Florida Panhandle,
into SW Alabama, to SE Louisiana. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible within 60 nm on either side of the front.

An upper level trough extends from interior sections of Mexico
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 26N
southward from 85W westward. Areas of precipitation have been
forming in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico during the last 6
to 8 hours or so, followed by warming cloud top temperatures and
dissipating precipitation, followed by more areas of developing
precipitation.

An upper level trough is in Georgia. Precipitation: warming
cloud top temperatures, and dissipating but remnant
precipitation, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 75W westward.

The current stationary front is dissipating, from near Mobile
Bay to southern Louisiana. A weak cold front will move into the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. The weak cold
front will stall and dissipate in the east central Gulf of
Mexico by late Tuesday. It is possible that the wind speeds and
the sea heights may increase in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by
mid-week, as low pressure forms more to the south.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section,  for more information
about the potential for heavy rainfall in Central America,
during the next few days.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and weakening but some
remnant precipitation, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The clouds and precipitation are related to what has been
moving from the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from the SW Gulf of Mexico upper level trough and
clouds and precipitation.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea. The upper level wind flow is at the
southern end of the upper level trough that extends from the
central Atlantic Ocean, southwestward. This is the same upper
level trough that is near the 1015 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure center that is near 28N56W, and the subject of the
SPECIAL FEATURES section.

The tropical wave that is to the south of Jamaica will move
across the western Caribbean Sea through Sunday. The wind speeds
and the sea heights will increase in the Gulf of Honduras, early
next week, as broad low pressure forms in the northern sections
of Central America and southern Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the 1015 mb low pressure center.
that is near 28N56W. The chance of formation into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
22N northward from 36W eastward. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Weak high pressure to the north of the area will shift eastward
through Sunday. The area of high pressure will move eastward, in
advance of a cold front that is forecast to move to the south of
30N Sunday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to Palm
Beach Florida on Monday. The front will stall,
and dissipate along 25N through mid-week.

$$
mt
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