[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL in Central America...

A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean within the next couple days. The gyre will move
northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during
the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into
parts of Central America through the weekend, and into the next
week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America,
especially from northern Costa Rica northward into southern
Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest
amounts of rainfall, especially for areas of mountainous
terrain. Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is 71W/72W, from 20N southward, moving westward
15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 90 nm of the southern side of Hispaniola,
between 70W and 76W between Cuba and Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
to 07N20W, and to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W, to
05N34W and to 03N44W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 05N to 09N between 10W and 17W, within 360 nm to
the south and southeast of the monsoon trough. Scattered
moderate to strong is in clusters, within 240 nm to the north of
the ITCZ, between 34W and 44W; and from 03N to 08N between 44W
and 55W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong is within 75 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ between 20W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through central Texas, southward,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 25N to 29N between 89W and
94W. A stationary front is passing through southern SW
Louisiana, into central and southern sections of Texas.

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to
the southwestern corner of Florida. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the waters
and parts of Florida, between 79W and 86W.

The current weak Texas coast cold front will move into the
northwest and north central Gulf of Mexico overnight. The front
will stall and dissipate in the NW Gulf through Saturday. A
second and reinforcing front will move into the northern Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday night. The second cold front will weaken, as
it drifts southward into the northeast Gulf of Mexico, through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the heavy rainfall that is expected in Central America,
during the next few days.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, continues to
cover the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. The upper level
cyclonic wind flow and trough are the southern extensions of the
upper level Atlantic Ocean trough. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N
in the Atlantic Ocean, between 60W and 70W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible lingering precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea from
Jamaica westward.

The current tropical wave, that is to the south of the Dominican
Republic, will reach the western Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected in the
southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in adjacent sections
of Central America and South America, into the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow in the
Atlantic Ocean between 47W and 72W. A 1017 mb low pressure
center is near 22N56W. A surface trough extends from 29N50W,
through the 1017 mb low pressure center, to 20N61W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 480 nm to 720 nm of the 1017 mb low pressure center, in
the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm to
the north of the surface trough, and within 300 nm to the north
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure to the north of the area will move eastward
on Sunday. The area of high pressure  will move eastward, in
advance of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The
cold front will reach from Bermuda to Palm Beach Florida on
Monday. The cold front will stall, and dissipate along 25N,
through Tuesday night.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net