[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will
develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean within the next couple
days. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and
southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push
abundant moisture into parts of Central America through the
weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in
parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica
northward into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the locations
that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall, especially for
areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to forecasts from your
local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Caribbean along 71W
south of 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted over Hispaniola and the surrounding waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N37W to 03N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ
west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed over
the northern Gulf this evening, north of 26N and west of 84W.
Note that locally higher winds and rough seas are likely in and
near strong thunderstorms. A weak, nearly stationary front is
analyzed across SW Louisiana and along the upper Texas coast.
Outside of convective wind gusts, wind speeds remain gentle to
moderate over much of the Gulf under a weak pressure pattern, with
wave heights generally 2-4 ft.

A weak cold front along the Texas coast will move into the
northwest and north central Gulf through tonight, stall Fri, and
dissipate over the northwest Gulf into Sat. A reinforcing front
will move into the north central and northeast Gulf by late Sat,
then weaken as it drifts southward over the northeast Gulf through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information about the heavy rainfall expected over Central
America during the next few days.

Scattered strong convection persists this evening over the SW
Caribbean near the coasts of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. This
active monsoon trough is supported by a convectively coupled
Kelvin wave nearing the region. Elsewhere, diurnal convection is
noted over the Greater Antilles, aided by the passage of a
tropical wave south of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail over the southern Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are generally 4-6
ft within the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

A tropical wave south of the Dominican Republic will reach the
western Caribbean Fri. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the southwest Caribbean and adjacent portions of
Central and South America into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of thunderstorms is moving off the east-central Florida
coast this evening, accompanied by gusty winds and locally rough
seas. A surface high pressure ridge extends from 1031 mb high
pressure near 37N59W southwestward to near the NW Bahamas. Farther
east, 1016 mb low pressure near 23N55W is accompanied by a surface
trough extending from 28N51W to 19N61W. Fresh to locally strong
winds prevail north of 25N between 45W and 60W, with seas of 7-9
ft. A line of showers and thunderstorms is noted east of the
trough, north of 22N. Moderate NE trades continue over the central
and eastern Atlantic.

Weak high pressure will persist north of the area through Sat,
then shift east ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Sun. Fresh NE winds will follow the front as it
moves south, reaching from Bermuda to West Palm Beach, Florida by
late Mon, then stalling and dissipating along 25N through late
Tue.

$$
B Reinhart
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