[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Wed May 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Bertha is centered near 34.4N 80.3W at
27/2100 UTC or 50 nm ENE of Columbia South Carolina moving NNW
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A turn toward
the north at a faster forward speed is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday. On the
forecast track, Bertha will move across northern South Carolina
this evening and into central North Carolina and southwestern
Virginia later tonight.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will
develop in the eastern North Pacific by the end of the week. The
gyre will move northward toward Central America and southern
Mexico this weekend. This will advect abundant moisture into
portions of Central America by the end of the week, through the
weekend, and into next week. There is the potential for heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America, especially from
northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. This will
bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides for the areas that receive the heaviest rainfall.
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 63W south of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
No significant convection is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 01N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between
25W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid- to upper-level trough extends from the U.S. Southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley, while at the surface a
weakening cold front extends from SE Louisiana into the north-
central Gulf. Earlier scatterometer data depicted light to gentle
winds across the Gulf, with seas generally 3 ft or less based on
recent buoy observations. No significant convection is noted over
the Gulf this evening, although a line of strong thunderstorms
is crossing the Houston metro area and approaching the Texas
coastal waters. The latest smoke analysis indicates light smoke
from agricultural fires in Mexico lingers over the SW Gulf.

A weak trough over the NE Gulf will lift north and dissipate by
tonight. Weak low pressure over Louisiana and an associated
stationary front extending SW to just S of Tampico, Mexico will
also dissipate by Thu. A cold front may move off the TX coast Thu
night, but stall and weaken in the NW Gulf Fri. Areas of smoke
from fires in southern Mexico may at times reduce visibility in
the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Some scattered moderate convection lingers over the far SW
Caribbean this evening, in association with an active eastern
Pacific monsoon trough. Diurnal convection is noted over the
Greater Antilles and near the Virgin Islands. Several earlier
scatterometer passes showed fresh trades in the south-central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere across the
basin. Earlier altimeter data and buoy observations indicate wave
heights peak around 7-8 ft within the fresh trades off the coast
of Colombia and Venezuela.

Fresh trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through
the end of the week. A tropical wave is moving through the
Windward Islands this afternoon, and will cross the eastern
Caribbean before reaching the central Caribbean Fri. Increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the southwest
Caribbean and adjacent portions of South and Central America this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Depression Bertha has moved well inland over the
Carolinas, and associated winds off the Florida coast are
diminishing this evening. A line of thunderstorms that moved off
the Florida coast earlier today is now passing north of the NW
Bahamas. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring east of a surface trough that extends from 23N56W to
19N60W, with support from a vigorous mid-level low noted in water
vapor imagery. Farther east, a dissipating cold front is
analyzed from 31N30W to 28N34W. Moderate trades prevail S of 20N
over the central Atlantic, while moderate to fresh E winds are
noted in earlier scatterometer data N of 25N in the vicinity of
another surface trough along 50W.

Some fresh southerly winds in association with Bertha north of
29N offshore Florida will diminish by Thu. For the remainder of
the week, weak high pressure will build in from the N and E and
dominate most area. A trough of low pressure may impact areas
north and east of Puerto Rico this weekend.

$$
B Reinhart
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