[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Storm Bertha is located near 33.3N 79.5W at 27/1530 UTC
or 35 nm NE of Charleston, South Carolina and is moving N at
15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection surrounds the center of the storm
with rainbands moving well inland across South Carolina and the
northern SC coast in addition to southern North Carolina.
Scattered moderate convection is also to the east of the low
center from 32N-34N between 77W-80W. Bertha will continue to
generally move northward through tonight with a gradual increase
in forward speed. Bertha will move inland across eastern and
northern South Carolina later today and into central North
Carolina by tonight.  See the latest NHC forecast/advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...Central America Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall is expected to develop across portions of Central
America, from the eastern Yucatan southward into the Pacific
coast of Costa Rica beginning tomorrow and lasting through
Tuesday, June 2. El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western
Nicaragua are at the highest risk of the heaviest rainfall.
These areas will have the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mud-slides. Please refer to the local meteorological
services for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES
A tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward and is moving W
at 15-20 kt. TPW imagery has been showing enhanced moisture east
of the wave. No significant convection is associated with this
wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 22N southward
and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the Gulf of Honduras, E of 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 05N33W to 02N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough
from 05N-09N between 10W-17W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 23W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low is moving eastward from the U.S. southern Plains
to the middle Mississippi Valley. The mid-level trough extends
into the northern Gulf. At the surface, a weakening stationary
front extends across the central Gulf from SE Louisiana near
29N90W to 21N97W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche
from 24N90W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is moving off the coast of Mexico into the western Bay of
Campeche from 21N-25N between 94W-98W. An area of isolated
thunderstorms are moving in the SE Gulf from 23N-26N between
83W-86W. Light to gentle winds are seen across the Gulf with
seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft.  Smoke due to agricultural fires in
Mexico is possible across the Bay of Campeche which would reduce
visibility in that area.

A weak trough over the NE Gulf will lift north and dissipate by
tonight. A cold front over the NW Gulf has stalled from near New
Orleans, Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico this morning, and
will dissipate tonight. Weak high pressure will build in from
the N and E Friday into the weekend.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing numerous
moderate to strong convection in the southwest Caribbean, S of
12N between 77W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
Windward Passage and the Virgin Islands. Fresh trades are in the
central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
range 4 to 6 ft with upwards of 9 ft in the central basin.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the
south-central Caribbean into Fri. Fresh winds will pulse at
night over the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. During
periods of lighter winds in the Gulf of Honduras, smoke from
fires in Central America may lead to reduction in visibility at
times into late week. A tropical wave will reach the Windward
Islands later today, and move across the eastern Caribbean into
Fri, then cross the central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the
western Atlantic off the coast of Florida from 27N-30N between
78W-80W. Isolated thunderstorms are also popping up in the
northern Bahamas. Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms
are seen in the western and central Atlantic 19N-30N between
46W-63W. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from
29N46W to 22N48W. A cold front is dropping southward across the
central Atlantic from 31N32W to 27N42W. A trough continues to
linger across the Canary Islands from 31N20W to 28N17W with no
significant convection.

Low pressure has moved northward out of the area and developed
into Tropical Storm Bertha off the South Carolina coast this
morning. Bertha is forecast to move inland by tonight. Some
strong winds N of 30N between 68W and 75W will diminish tonight.
For the remainder of the week, weak high pressure will build in
from the N and E.

$$
AReinhart
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