[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
205 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 17N53W to 03N57W and is
moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture with
this tropical wave. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm
west and within 420 nm east of the wave axis, mainly south of 11N.
This wave may enhance showers over the Windward Islands beginning late
today and eastern Caribbean on Wednesday.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W south of 21N, moving
west at 15 kt. TPW imagery shows that a plume of enhanced moisture
accompanies the tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along and west of the wave axis, mainly south of 16N,
including over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea near 09N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to
03N51W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm either side
of the ITCZ. An area of numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is seen near the coast of Africa from 02N-08N
between 04W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N89W to a 1008 mb low near
26N84W to West Palm Beach Florida near 27N80W. A recent ASCAT
pass shows strong E winds over the NE Gulf to the north of the
surface trough with recent buoy data indicating seas to 8 ft
over the NE Gulf. Only isolated showers and tstorms are seen
over the eastern Gulf. Convection there has decreased in
coverage and intensity over the last 12 hours, as the greatest
upper-level diffluence has shifted east over Florida and the
western Atlantic. The weak low pressure near 26N84W will lift
north through today, then move inland on Wed. North of the
low, strong east winds will continue through this morning.

A weak cold front over Texas and an upper-level trough over
the western Gulf of Mexico are supporting scattered strong
convection inland over south Texas and northeastern Mexico.
A few of these tstorms may reach the western Gulf later this
morning in a weakened state. The cold front will reach the
Texas coast later today, then stall. Haze and smoke from
fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times
over the SW Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will prevail for
the end of the week into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 82W. See above.

Upper-level divergence over the NW Caribbean and a surface
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula are enhancing scattered
moderate isolated strong convection over waters just east
of northern Belize and southern Yucatan. Similar convection
is inland over Belize, Guatemala and portions of SE Mexico.
Mid-level ridging and subsidence over the eastern and central
Caribbean are leading to fair weather. A recent ASCAT pass
shows fresh trades across much of the basin, locally strong
near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean into mid-week, then remain fresh through Sat. Fresh
to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the
Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. A tropical wave along 82W
will cross the western Caribbean through Wed before exiting
into Central America. Another weak tropical wave will impact
the eastern Caribbean Wed and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the eastern Gulf across South
Florida to 28N79W. Strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing
numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 24.5N-28.5N
between 76W-80W, including over portions of the northwest
Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen in the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate showers
prevail east of northern Florida and Georgia from 28.5N-32N,
west of 76W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds across
the area west of 76W, with stronger winds in the convection
near the NW Bahamas. A weak surface trough is along 66W from
21N-27N. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen from 21N-26N
between the trough and 56W, aided by enhanced moisture seen
on TPW imagery. Farther east, a surface trough extends from
31N37W to 25N47W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
within 60 nm of the trough axis, and this scattered line of
showers extends WSW from there to about 24N52W. A 1022 mb
high is near 27N40W. In the NE Atlantic, a surface trough
is from 23N20W to 32N27N. Isolated showers are near the
trough axis north of 29N.

The weak surface trough S of 27N along 66W will move little and
likely dissipate today. Another surface trough oriented west
to east off the South Florida coast will lift N through
tonight, with strong east winds ahead of it. Another trough
may develop mainly E of 63W during the latter half of the week.

$$
Hagen
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