[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 54W south of 15N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 360 nm east
of the wave axis. This wave may enhance showers over the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 20N, moving west
at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 02N38W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the
ITCZ between 24W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 24N88W across the SE Gulf and over
South Florida. Recent buoy and ship observations and earlier
scatterometer data show fresh E winds north of the trough with
seas to 8 ft over the NE Gulf. Upper-level diffluence and deep
tropical moisture continues to support showers and thunderstorms
over western Cuba, South Florida, and the SE Gulf. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the north-central Gulf.
Light haze and smoke persists in the Bay of Campeche and the SW
Gulf from fires over southern Mexico.

Weak low pressure will likely form tonight offshore of the
Florida Peninsula, lift north Tue, then move inland on Wed. North
of the low, fresh east winds are expected in the NE Gulf tonight.
A weak cold front will reach the Texas coast Tue, then stall. Haze
and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility
at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues over western Cuba this
evening in association with an upper-level trough axis that
reaches from the NW Gulf to the NW Caribbean. Fresh trades
persist over the south-central Caribbean, with strong winds near
the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas likely
peak around 7-8 ft in this area. Elsewhere, generally gentle to
moderate trades prevail across the rest of the Caribbean with 3-6
ft seas.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean into mid-week, then remain fresh through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of
Honduras into Wed night. A tropical wave along 77W will cross the
western Caribbean through Wed, before exiting into Central
America. Another weak tropical wave will impact the eastern
Caribbean for the latter half of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the eastern Gulf across South
Florida to the NW Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms continue
offshore of Florida and the Bahamas this evening as deep tropical
moisture streams northward, with support from an upper-level
trough over the eastern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong E winds are
likely occurring offshore of central Florida and north of the NW
Bahamas. Another trough extends from 26N63W to just north of
Hispaniola, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
noted east of the trough between 58W and 63W. Over the central
Atlantic, a trough extends from 31N38W to 24N48W with a weak 1019
mb low analyzed near 29N42W. Moderate NE winds are occurring west
of the trough axis. Elsewhere, moderate trades are noted south of
20N over the eastern Atlantic.

A weak surface trough along 69W will move little and likely dissipate
Tue. Another surface trough oriented west to east off the South
Florida coast will lift N through Tue night, with strong east
winds ahead of it. Another trough may develop mainly E of 63W
during the latter half of the week.

$$
B Reinhart
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