[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 43W from 17N southward, moving W at
15-20 kt. The wave shows up well in Total Precipitable Water
imagery, with the highest TPW values just west of the 700 mb
trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N
between 37W-46W. The wave should enhance showers over the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed.

A tropical wave is along 83/84W from 21N southward, moving
westward around 15 kt. An upper-level trough that extends
from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to Costa Rica is
providing upper-level diffluence and divergence over the
northwest Caribbean Sea, which is enhancing scattered
moderate to strong convection from 17N to the S coast of
Cuba between Jamaica and the wave axis. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is west of the wave
axis, north of 19N through the Yucatan Channel. The wave
should become diffuse in the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near
09N14W to 06.5N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N20W to
03N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N46W to
01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section
above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough axis extends from the north-central Gulf
of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel to Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms are over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, mostly east of 88W, or east of a line from Cancun to
Pensacola. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E to SE winds across
the western Gulf west of 91W. Gentle to moderate winds are in
the NE Gulf. Fresh winds are seen in the Florida Straits.

A low pressure trough will develop over the eastern Gulf today.
Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W tonight
into Mon as the trough slowly lifts northward across the NE
Gulf. A trough or weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf by
mid-week. Elsewhere, smoke from fires over southern Mexico
could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 83/84W. See above
for description of the wave and of convection in the northwest
Caribbean associated with the upper-level trough. Mid- to
upper-level ridging and dry air prevail over the eastern half
of the Caribbean Sea. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N between 67W-75W.
Fresh to locally strong winds are over portions of the NW
Caribbean, especially between Jamaica and 81.5W.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean through Mon, then remain fresh through the middle
of next week. A weak tropical wave over the western
Caribbean will dissipate today. However, active weather
is expected to continue across the NW Caribbean through
today associated with an upper-level trough. A tropical
wave along 43W will enhance showers for the Lesser Antilles
by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms near South Florida, the northwest Bahamas
and the Florida Straits. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E
winds throughout the Bahamas region and the Florida Straits.
A weak surface trough is from 30N67W to 24N68W. Isolated
showers are east of the trough axis. Farther east, a
stationary front extends SW from a 1018 mb low near 32N41W to
26N46W. A surface trough is from 26N46W to 22N51W. Scattered
showers are near the front and trough.

The surface trough extending from 30N65W to 23N68W will
gradually drift westward through tonight. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail across the area into the middle of next
week. Winds and seas may increase over the northern waters E
of 70W late Wed through Thu as a low pressure trough develops
E of the area.

$$
Hagen
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