[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 82W from 20N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is embedded in deep layered
southeasterly wind flow, and will become diffuse in the next 24
hours, as it becomes absorbed in a developing broad cyclonic
pattern forming across the Yucatan Peninsula and the western
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
17N- 21N between 79W-83W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are elsewhere between Jamaica and Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen north of the trough and ITCZ to 06N between
12W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

SE winds of 10-15 kt generally prevail over the Gulf of Mexico,
with a few small areas of 15-20 kt across southeast portions. A
middle to upper level trough is over the central Gulf along 90W-
91W and producing favorable upper level conditions for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms over the E Gulf E of 90W, and
across the Straits of Florida south of 24N.

A surface ridge across the NE Gulf will shift eastward through
early next week. A low pressure trough will develop over the
eastern Gulf on Sun and produce increasing winds and seas E of 90W
Sun night into Mon. Smoke from fires over southern Mexico may
reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 82W. See above.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades will persist in the south-
central Caribbean through Mon night, then diminish into the middle
of next week. Active weather is expected to continue across the
NW Caribbean through late Sun as ample moisture as ample moisture
flows across the area, and the upper trough persists along 90W and
the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of an old surface low persist over the W Atlantic as
a trough from 30N65W to 23N67W. Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the trough. A 1024 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
34N57W. The tail end of a stationary front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N43W to 25N50W to 24N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm SE of the front. A 1033 mb high is
over the far E Atlantic near 45N14W with ridging extending to
25N40W.

Lingering NE to E swell offshore of the Bahamas will subside by
tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the W
Atlantic through the middle of next week as moderate high pressure
prevails.

$$
Stripling
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