[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is centered near 35.1N 75.2W at 18/1500
UTC or 20 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NNE at
14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.

On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the
coast of North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move
near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today.
Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the
United States tonight and Tuesday. While some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its
tropical characteristics on Tuesday. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N50W to 02N53W, moving W
around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
wave mainly S of 10N. Moisture from this wave could spread over
portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 11N15W to
07N20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon
trough over Africa, while scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak frontal boundary extends over the north central Gulf,
extending from 30N88W to 26N91W. To the southeast, a surface trough
extends from 28N86W to 20N92W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over the northeast portion of the basin mainly north of 26N
and east of the front/trough. To the southwest, a surface trough
extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N97W to 19N95W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1014 mb high centered near 26N96W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the frontal boundary,
while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

The front will move eastward across the Gulf through Tue evening. A
second cold front will follow, and forecast to stall along the
northern Gulf Coast Wed through Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires
in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest low level precipitable water imagery show abundant
moisture over the western half of the Caribbean, which along upper
level diffluence is supporting scattered showers and tstms over Costa
Rica and Panama adjacent waters and in the Gulf of Honduras.
Dry air subsidence prevails across the remainder basin, which is
supporting fair weather conditions. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevailing across the southern
portion of the basin, while gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean
through Tue night then resume again Thu night through Fri. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through
Fri. Agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility at
times across the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean within the next 36-48 hours enhancing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Arthur is approaching the coast of North Carolina.
See the section above for details.

A tropical wave is analyzed to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
Refer to the section above for more information.

High pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored
by a 1024 mb high centered near 29N56W and a 1025 mb high near
29N32W.

Arthur will begin to veer more NE and then E today through tonight,
then become extratropical Tue and move ESE. Northerly swell from
Arthur is expected to move into the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and
Thu. High pressure ridge will persist across the central waters for
the next several days.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net