[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is near 33.5N 76.6W at 18/0900 UTC, or
about 75 nm S of Morehead City, North Carolina, moving NNE at 12
kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb and maximum sustained
winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 33N to 37N W of 72W.

On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the
coast of North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move
near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today.
Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the
United States tonight and Tuesday. While some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its
tropical characteristics on Tuesday. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is to the E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of
18N along 51W, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is from 06N to 10N between 46W and 51W. Moisture from this
tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles
late Tue into Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from
07N20W to 04N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 01N-10N E of 16W. Scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from 30N87W to 24N92W. The front will
move eastward across the Gulf through Tue evening. Scattered
showers and tstms are ahead of this front affecting the waters E
of 87W. Another cold front will follow, which is forecast to stall
along the northern Gulf Coast Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke
from fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of
Campeche for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest low level precipitable water imagery show abundant
moisture over the western half of the Caribbean, which along upper
level difflunce is supporting scattered showers and tstms over
Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters and in the Gulf of Honduras.
Dry air subsidence prevail across the remainder basin, which is
supporting fair weather conditions. However, the passage of a
tropical wave by Tue and Wed may bring showers to this region of
the basin. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades will continue over
the central Caribbean through Tue night then resume again Thu
night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras Wed night through Fri. Fires in Central America may
reduce visibility at times in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Arthur near 33.5N 76.6W 1002 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Arthur
will move to 35.2N 74.9W this afternoon, 36.5N 72.1W Tue morning,
become extratropical and move to 36.5N 69.0W Tue afternoon, 35.6N
66.5W Wed morning, and 34.4N 65.1W Thu morning. Arthur will change
little in intensity as it moves near 33.0N 64.5W early Fri, and
weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 31.0N 63.5W Sat.

Refer to the Special Features section above for further details
on Tropical Storm Arthur.

A set of northerly swell from Arthur may impact the waters N of
the Bahamas Wed and Thu. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will
persist across the central waters for the next several days.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net