[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180443
TWDAT

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is near 32.4N 76.9W at 18/0300 UTC, or
about 185 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving NNE at
9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb and maximum sustained
winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the
northern semicircle. Arthur is expected to turn NE today and
east on Tue.

On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will move near or
just east of the coast of North Carolina today. Arthur is
forecast to turn away from the U.S. East Coast Monday night and
become post-tropical Tue morning in the vicinity of 36.5N 70W.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends from 18N47W to 02N51W, moving W
around 15 kt. The tropical wave is situated along the leading
edge of a high amplitude moisture plume seen in Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is seen
within 120 nm of the wave axis from 02N-09N. Moisture from this
tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles
late Tue into Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from
07N20W to 04N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 02N-08N between 17W-37W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen near the coast of Africa from
00N-09N between 05W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 18/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Gulfport, MS to
near Boothville, LA to near 26N93W. A pre-frontal surface
trough extends from Pensacola Florida to 26N88W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen north of 27N,
between 84.5W-89.5W. Similar convection is seen in the Florida
Straits between 81W-85W. The convection is being enhanced by
upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper-level trough
over the central Gulf. Isolated showers and tstorms are
elsewhere over portions of the northern, eastern and southern
Gulf, including behind the cold front near the coast of
Louisiana. A 1014 mb high is over the W Gulf near 27N95W.

The weak cold front from Gulfport, MS to 26N93W will move
eastward across the northern Gulf early this week. This front
may be followed by another cold front that could stall near the
northern Gulf Coast or over the northern Gulf Wed through Fri.
Elsewhere, smoke from fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at
times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anticyclonic flow centered north of Puerto Rico is
spreading subsidence and dry air over the eastern Caribbean.
Isolated showers and tstorms are over the far SW Caribbean
and in the vicinity of Cuba. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is seen over portions of Guatemala, Belize,
Honduras and El Salvador. Some of these showers and tstorms
may be spilling into the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers
extend N from there through the Yucatan Channel. A recent
ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean, south of 15.5N between 70W-74.5W, including along
the coast of NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. Fresh trades are
elsewhere from 10.5N-17N between 63W-81W.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central
Caribbean through Tue night then resume again Thu night through
Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse early this morning in the
Gulf of Honduras then resume Wed night through Fri. Fires in
Central America may reduce visibility at times in the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arthur.

Isolated tstorms prevail near western Grand Bahama Island and off
the coast of central Florida, associated with a moist atmosphere
left in the wake of Tropical Storm Arthur, which is now well
north of the area. Farther E, a surface trough extends from
32N47W to 26N57W. A line of scattered showers and tstorms is
just E of the surface trough, mainly N of 28N and E of 52W.
A 1023 mb surface high is near 28N46W.

A set of northerly swell from Arthur may impact the waters N
of the Bahamas late this week. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge
will persist across the central waters for the next several days.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net