[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is near 31.5N 77.2W at 2100 UTC, or above
275 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving NNE at 8 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb and maximum sustained winds
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 30N to 35N between 74W and 78W. Arthur
is expected to turn toward the northeast and increase in forward
speed during the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn toward the east is
forecast to occur Tuesday. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina
tonight, then move near or just east of the coast of North
Carolina Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the U.S.
East Coast Monday night and Tuesday. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 49W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection from 04N-09N between 44W-50W is associated
with this broad tropical wave. Moisture from this tropical wave
could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into
Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 03N30W
to 00N49W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ from 01N-09N between 10W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a cold front is slowing over the NW Gulf, and
stretches from central Louisiana near 30N91W to just south of
Corpus Christi, TX near 26N98W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed
from 30N88W to 25N92W. Scattered thunderstorms are along this
trough. A weakening trough extends from the Bay of Campeche near
19N94W northward to 24N89W. Gentle to moderate NW winds are
occurring behind the cold front, with gentle to moderate S winds
elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 feet in the western Gulf,
and 2 to 4 ft to the east. Light smoke in the Bay of Campeche may
be reducing visibility.

The cold front will weaken and slide eastward across the northern
Gulf early this week. This front may be followed by another cold
front that could stall near the northern Gulf Coast or over the
northern Gulf Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from fires in
Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air subsidence from aloft continues to support generally fair
weather conditions across the basin. Scattered moderate convection
is offshore Costa Rica from 09N to 12N between 79W and 83W.
Strong trades are occurring N of Colombia and Venezuela with fresh
trades seen across the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh
easterly winds are also occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, with
generally gentle winds elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Seas
are generally 4 to 7 ft, with some 8 to 10 ft seas in the south-
central Caribbean. Light smoke is noted in the Gulf of Honduras
which could reduce visibility.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-
central Caribbean this week as a high pressure ridge persists
north of the region. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in
the Gulf of Honduras. Fires in Central America may reduce
visibility at times in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arthur.

Scattered moderate convection prevails over and near the northern
Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 73W and 79W, associated with a
weak surface trough extending from Tropical Storm Arthur. Another
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 31N50W to 27N57W.
Thunderstorms associated with this trough have diminished. A
weakening stationary front resides from 31N40N to 30N42W.
Otherwise, high pressure dominates the rest of the basin which
will persist for the next several days. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are noted in the western Atlantic to the SE of Arthur, with
gentle to moderate westerly winds SW of Arthur. Seas are building
to 18 ft near the center of the storm. A set of northerly swell
from Arthur may impact the waters N of the Bahamas late this week.

$$
KONARIK
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