[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is near 30.0N 77.6W at 0900 UTC, or about
330 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving NNE at 8 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb and maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is N of 23N between 74W and 78W. On the forecast
track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just
east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose
its tropical characteristics on Tuesday.
See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at
hurricanes.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/170311.shtml? for more
details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

An elongated area of low pressure over SE Mexico and adjacent
waters in the Bay of Campeche is supporting an area of gale force
winds between the waters E of Tampico and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. These winds are expected to diminish later this
morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 43W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection from 07N-10N between 35W-46W is associated
with this broad tropical wave. Moisture from this tropical wave
could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into
Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N40W,
then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N44W to 00N50W.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-09N
between 07W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within
90 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the SW Gulf of
Mexico until 0900 UTC Sunday morning. See section above for
details.

Low pressure may develop near Louisiana today and
drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed.
An elongated area of low pressure over SE Mexico and adjacent
waters in the Bay of Campeche is supporting an area of gale force
winds between the waters E of Tampico and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. These winds are expected to diminish later this
morning. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may
reduce the visibility in the Bay of Campeche for the next several
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air subsidence from aloft continues to support generally fair
weather conditions across the basin, except over the Panama and
Costa Rica adjacent waters where EPAC monsoon trough support
scattered showers and tstms.

High pressure north of the region will weaken and shift eastward
through Wed. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-
central Caribbean near Venezuela and Colombia through Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon. Otherwise, agricultural fires in northern Central
America may reduce visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arthur. Otherwise, the remainder subtropical Atlc
waters are dominated by high pressure and fair weather
conditions.

$$
Ramos
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