[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170617
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
216 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Depression One has strengthened to Tropical Storm
Arthur. At 17/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Arthur is near 29.4N
77.7W, or about 165 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral, FL, moving NNE at
11 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb and maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center in the
eastern semicircle. An outer band in the SW quadrant has
scattered moderate convection between 120-210 nm from the
center. Arthur is forecast to strengthen as it moves NE and
passes near or offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina Monday
morning.
See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at
hurricanes.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/170311.shtml? for
more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The latest ASCAT pass from around 17/0230 UTC shows gale force
NE to E winds are currently occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico
from 21N-23N between 92.5W-95.5W. NOAA buoy 42055 near 22.1N
93.9W reported 1-min winds of 31-35 kt continuously from 16/2320
UTC to 17/0500 UTC. The area of gales is in between a 1015 mb
high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a 1002 mb low over
Mexico. The gale force winds in this area are forecast to end by
1200 UTC this morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 42W moving W at 10-15 kt. The tropical
wave shows up well on TPW imagery and the 700 mb trough
diagnostics.
Scattered moderate convection from 04N-09N between 31W-45W is
associated with this broad tropical wave. Moisture from this
tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles
late Tue into Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N40W,
then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N44W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02.5N-08N
between 07W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-04N
between 46W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the SW Gulf of
Mexico until 1200 UTC Sunday morning. See section above for
details.

A 1015 mb sfc high is over the NE Gulf near 29N85W. An upper-
level low is over Florida, and another upper-level low is over
Texas. The pattern is producing strong upper-level divergence
over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, scattered moderate
convection is seen over portions of the central to southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Some strong convection is seen near the coast of
Mexico from 20N-22N between 95W-99W. Aside from the area of
gales in the SW Gulf of Mexico, most of the Gulf is experiencing
gentle wind speeds.

The surface ridge over the NE Gulf will continue weakening today.
Low pressure may develop near Louisiana today and drag a weak
cold front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry conditions prevail over much of the basin, although
scattered showers and tstorms are seen near and over portions of
Cuba. Isolated showers are in the far SW Caribbean near Panama
and Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds over
most of the basin, except for strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central
Caribbean near Venezuela and Colombia through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arthur. A surface trough extends from 30N55W to
26N61W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the trough axis.
A 1025 mb high is near 32N60W and a 1026 mb high is near 33N45W.
A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 27.5N45W, with
isolated showers along the front.

$$
Hagen
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