[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 49W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate isolated strong is from 02N to 05N between
32W and 51w. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 28N61W,
and it continues to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through
the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is from 18N in the
Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the
Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate
is from 25N northward from 90W westward.

The current stationary front will weaken and then dissipate in
the Gulf of Mexico later today. A ridge extending into the NE
Gulf will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W
through tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail in the
rest of basin through the weekend. Low pressure may develop near
Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern
Gulf on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is north of the area in the Atlantic Ocean
across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and
into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in
the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in
the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will strengthen north of the region through Sat.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N52W,
to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of
Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. A surface
trough is along 28N54W to 21N57W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate from 21N northward between 50W and 70W, with the front.
Scattered moderate to strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to
28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and
87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere,
within 240 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 120
nm to the west of the surface trough.

A dissipating eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through
the coastal sections of the Western Sahara near 23N16W, to
24N28W. Precipitation: no significant convective precipitation
is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current stationary front will weaken across the Bahamas
later today. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
Ocean through Fri, resulting in fresh to strong E winds and
building seas over the waters N of 22N. It is likely that an
area of low pressure will form near the Bahamas early on
Saturday. It is possible that the low pressure center may
develop into a subtropical depression during the upcoming
weekend, while moving NE in the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt/dbm
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