[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
06N23W, to 03N30W, to the Equator along 37W, along the Equator
to 49W. Precipitation: scattered strong is: from 04N to 06N
between 14W and 16W; within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 20W and 25W; and from 100 nm to 200 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 32W and 36W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough between 16W and 23W, and within 150 nm to 300 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 44W and 52W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 28N61W,
and it continues to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through
the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean,
between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate is from 25N northward from 90W westward.

The current stationary front will weaken overnight, and then
dissipate on Thursday. A ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W through
Thursday night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across
the rest of basin through the weekend. It is possible that a
weak cold front may approach the northern Gulf of Mexico late on
Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
28N61W, and it continues to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas,
through the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near
24N85W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic
Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of
Mexico.

A relatively weak pressure gradient will strengthen from
Thursday through Saturday, as high pressure builds north of the
area. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across
the south central Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N53W, to
28N61W. The front becomes stationary at 28N61W, and it continues
to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of
Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. A surface
trough is along 28N54W 25N56W 21N57W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 21N northward between 50W and 70W, with the cold
front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N
in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W
in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers
are possible, elsewhere, within 240 nm to the east of the
surface trough, and within 120 nm to the west of the surface
trough.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through the coastal
sections of the Western Sahara near 25N15W, to 24N39W.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

The current stationary front will weaken overnight, and
dissipate by Thursday night. High pressure will build in the
western Atlantic Ocean through Friday. The result will be fresh
to strong E winds and building seas in the waters N of 22N. It
is likely that an area of low pressure may form near the Bahamas
early on Saturday. It is possible that the low pressure center
may develop into a subtropical depression during the upcoming
weekend, while moving NE in the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt
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