[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0517 UTC Sun May 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure system is developing over the southern Gulf of
Mexico. At this time, a surface low is centered near 25N95W,
with stationary front extending from the low to 27N82W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted over the
Yucatan peninsula, Yucatan Channel, west Cuba, Belize, and west
Honduras. This activity is expected to grow and move east
affecting Cuba, South Florida and Bahamas today. The potential
for heavy rainfall will continue through early Monday for these
areas. Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for
more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted i the
vicinity of both boundaries mainly between 17W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a
stationary front from 27N83W to 27N89W to a 1014 mb low near
25N95W. The front continues from the low to 21N97W, then
continues NW across eastern Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the basin with these features. Over
the Yucatan peninsula, a surface trough extends from 22N89W to
17N92W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
across the peninsula and adjacent waters south of 23N between
84W-90W. Refer to the section above for more details.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across the northern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh
easterly winds prevail across the southern half.

The front will transition back to a cold front Sun as the low to
tracks NE toward South Florida. The low will track across the
Florida straits late Sun, while the cold front will shift SE of
the area Mon. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will
continue to impact most of the southern Gulf waters through Mon
morning. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pressure gradient between the 1010 mb Colombian low and high
pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh
E trades across most of the basin. The exception is within 90 nm
north of Colombia, where scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong easterly winds. Peak seas are near 12 ft in the same
location. The convection previously discussed over the Yucatan
peninsula is also affecting the Yucatan channel, Central
America, and NW Caribbean. Refer to the section above for more
details.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the central and portions of the eastern Caribbean,
and gentle to moderate winds over most of the remainder of the
basin through Sun night. The aerial extent of the strong trades
will diminish and reduce to the south-central Caribbean for the
remainder period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to 28N80W, then continues west
across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. To the
southeast, a weakening frontal system is analyzed as a
stationary front from 30N49W to 28N66W, then continues as a
surface trough  from that point to 21N76W. Scattered showers are
noted across the west Atlantic with these features mainly west
of 60W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 28N42W. The
moderate N-S pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZis
causing NE trades ranging from gentle up to fresh breeze
conditions. Seas remain below 8 ft across the Atlantic waters.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will move across the
waters N of 28N through Sun. Weak low pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico will track NE across south Florida into the Bahamas Sun
through Mon enhancing winds and generating numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The low will move N of the area Mon night, while
dragging a cold front across the forecast waters. The front will
move E of the area by Wed night.

$$

ERA
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