[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2245 UTC Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W at the coast of Guinea to
03N24W. The ITCZ extends from there to 00N50W at the coast of
Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N-10N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends eastward from a 1014 mb low
at 25N94W to the Florida peninsula near 27N83W. On the
southwestward side of the low, a stationary front extends to
22N97W on the coast of NE Mexico. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 60 nm of the front west of 85W. Also in the
Gulf a 1012 mb low is at 22N93W, accompanied by scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 21N-24W between
87W-94W. Winds north of the front are NE to E fresh to strong.
Winds south of the front are generally moderate or weaker, except
in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Seas remain below 8 ft.

The cold front will gradually stall through Sun morning and then
transition back to a cold front as the low starts to track NE
toward South Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected
W of the front through Mon morning when the front will likely
exit the basin. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will
continue to impact most of the southern Gulf waters through Mon
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate N-S pressure gradient between the 1008 mb Colombian
low and a ridge of high pressure north of the Caribbean is
supporting moderate to fresh E trades across the Caribbean. The
exception is just north of Colombia, which shows strong E trades
as observed in the scatterometer earlier today. Peak seas are
near 12 ft in the same location. No significant deep convection
is occurring over the Caribbean Sea, though numerous moderate and
scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring over Central
America and N Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and portions of the eastern
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds over most of the
remainder of the basin through Sun night. The aerial extent of
the strong trades will diminish and reduce to the south-central
Caribbean for the remainder period. Heavy showers and tstms are
expected over the NW Caribbean Sun through Mon morning as a low
associated with a front moves across the SE Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N71W west-southwestward to 28N81W at
the Florida peninsula. Winds north of the front are N fresh to
strong breeze. Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the front.
A second cold front enters our waters near 32N47W and extends
southwestward to 27N55W, where it transitions to a stationary
front to 25N74W near the central Bahamas. Winds are fresh or
weaker in association with this frontal boundary, though
scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the front west of 65W.
Elsewhere the tropical N Atlantic is dominated by a ridge of high
pressure that extends from 23N65W to a 1025 mb high at 29N39W.
The moderate N-S pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ
is causing NE trades ranging from gentle up to fresh breeze
conditions. Seas remain below 8 ft across the Atlantic waters.

The western cold front will move across the waters N of the
Bahamas through Sun. Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will
track NE across south Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon
enhancing winds and generating numerous showers and
thunderstorms. In the wake of the low, a cold front will move
across the northern and central waters through Mon night, then
stall before moving E of the area by Wed night.

$$
Landsea
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