[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 04N25W to 02N39W to
01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated to
scattered strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 18W-36W. Similar convection is seen from 03.5-06.5N
between 10W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is near the ITCZ
between 36W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging extends from a 1021 mb high over
northern Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Fair skies and
dry weather prevail over much of the basin. A weak surface
trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing isolated showers and
tstorms from 19N-22N between 91W-94W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong southerly winds across the northwestern
Gulf. Moderate winds are over the southern and eastern Gulf.

High pressure will retreat eastward today, enabling a cold front
to move into the northern Gulf tonight. The front will move to
the central Gulf Sat and gradually stall through Sun. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop along the front over the SW
Gulf on Sat, and track east-northeastward toward South Florida
on Sun. Fresh to strong E winds will develop N of the front over
the central Gulf late Sat into Sun. The low and front will bring
numerous showers and scattered tstorms to most of the southern
and eastern Gulf Sat through Sun. The front will then exit the
SE Gulf early Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern two-
thirds of the Caribbean. A stationary front extends across Cuba
from 21N77W to 21N81W. Isolated showers and tstorms are between
Jamaica and the eastern half of Cuba. The latest TPW imagery
shows increased moisture over the NW Caribbean from the
dissipating front and over the SW Caribbean from the east
Pacific trough. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the
Gulf of Honduras and coast of Belize. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen south of 11.5N between 80W-
82W, just N of western Panama. Isolated showers and tstorms are
elsewhere south of 11.5N between 76W-85W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, south of 15N
between 67W-75W. Fresh trades are elsewhere south of 18N between
63W-80W.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sat. The aerial
extent of the trades will increase slightly Sat into Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N57W to 25N66W to the SE Bahamas near
22N73W, then continues as a stationary front to the coast of Cuba
near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
front, mainly north of 22N and east of 70W. The convection
extends to 180 nm east of the front, north of 29N east of 57W.
West of 70W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within
60 nm of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds on
both sides of the front, except for locally strong along and
within 30 nm east of the front, north of 26N and east of 63W.
Gentle anticyclonic flow is seen north of the Bahamas, due to
weak surface high pressure in the area. Farther east, a 1025 mb
surface high near 32N39W extends a surface ridge to 20N60W. A
cold front extends from 32N20W to 27N25W, then continues as a
surface trough to 24N29W to 23.5N34W. Isolated showers are near
the front and trough.

The cold front from 26N65W to central Cuba will stall today.
Another cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida Sat
morning and move across the waters north of 29N through Sun.
Weak low pressure is expected to track NE across south Florida
into the Bahamas Sun through Mon. Numerous showers and tstorms
will impact most of the waters between 70W-85W Sun into Mon. In
the wake of the low, a cold front will move across the western
Atlantic through Mon night, then reach from near 29N65W to
26N70W and stall to the central Cuba coast late Tue.

$$
Hagen
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