[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N15W to 07N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N17W to 04N23W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm N and 90 nm S
of the ITCZ from 20W to 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High presure is centered over the NE Gulf, with broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
winds prevail over the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail
over the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 6-7 ft range over the NW Gulf, 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf,
and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Convection is limited over the Gulf, with
only isolated showers in the SW Gulf.

High pressure will retreat eastward today, enabling a cold front
to move into the northern Gulf tonight. The front will shift
across the Gulf waters. An area of low pressure may develop over
the SW Gulf on Sat, and track ENE toward South Florida on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
Atlantic and surface troughing over the SW Caribbean is supportinf
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail over the remainder of the central Caribbean
as well as the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 5-7 ft
elsewhere. Isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind
flow.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sat. The aerial
extent of the trades will increase slightly Sat into Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 30N65W to central Cuba. Fresh to
strong winds and seas of 7-8 ft prevail N of 27N within 90 nm E of
the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
within 120 nm E of the front and N of 25N. Moderate to fresh winds
Prevail over the waters W of the front, except off the coast of NE
Florida where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas over this
area are in the 4-6 ft range, except W of the Bahamas where seas
are in the 1-3 ft range. Moderate to fresh tradewind flow, with
seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail S of 20N. Isolated showers are
embedded within the tradewind flow. Elsewhere N of 20N and E of
the cold front, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft
range generally prevail.

The cold front will stall today over the SE waters. Another cold
front is forecast to move off northern Florida Sat morning. The
front will move across the waters N of 29N through Sun. Low
pressure may develop over the Gulf of Mexico, and track across
south Florida into the Bahamas Sun into Mon.

$$
AL/mt
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