[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0730 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean will increase to gale force along the
coast of Colombia this evening and prevail through Wed morning.
Significant wave heights will peak to 11 ft during the ongoing
gales. Afterwards, winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse
to near gale force speeds at night through the rest of the week,
possibly reaching gale force once again Fri night and Sat night
as high pressure builds over the western subtropical Atlantic.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 00N16W to 02S22W. The ITCZ extends from 02S22W to 02S30W to
0N40W to 0N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 05S to 07N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending from the SW N Atlc waters SW to the
western Gulf continues to provide moderate to fresh return flow
across the basin. Layered water vapor imagery show strong
subsidence basin wide under the influence of a middle to upper
level high. Atmospheric conditions aloft will prevail through
Sat, thus supporting generally fair weather.

A high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf
through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate winds across most of
the basin. Fresh northeast to east winds will develop each
evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then diminish during
the overnight hours. A cold front will move into the western
Gulf Sat and Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and seas
expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate
over the northern gulf Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A middle level trough over the eastern Caribbean continues to
support a surface trough currently moving over the Mona Passage.
Deep layered moisture over the NE Caribbean supports scattered
showers N of 15N  E of 70W, including Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. The trough and associated shower activity will
continue to move west and dissipate Wed morning near the
Windward Passage. Ridging aloft will support fair weather over
the NW Caribbean trough the weekend. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds dominate the central basin waters while gentle to
moderate trades are noted elsewhere.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through this
week. Minimal gale force winds are expected offshore the coast
of Colombia tonight and are possible once again Fri night, Sat
night, and Sun night as high pressure builds over the sub-
tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong northeast winds through the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish tonight.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf
of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure dominates the sub-tropical Atlc waters. A
stationary front traverses the ridge and extends along 30N36W to
30N50W with isolated showers likely within 45 nm ahead of the
front. Fresh NE winds are ahead of the front to 29N with seas to
11 ft in NE swell. Isolated showers prevail N of Puerto Rico to
near 23N being supported by a middle level trough. This shower
activity will continue to drift westward to N of Hispaniola
through Wed morning.

A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters
for the next several days. Fresh to strong southwest winds will
build seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a
cold front that is expected to move across the waters north of
22N late Wed night through Fri night. Associated northerly swell
will propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri
night. High pressure will rebuild over the northern waters in
the wake of the front.

$$
Ramos
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