[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force winds have diminished during
the day with latest ASCAT indicating fresh to strong winds north
of Colombia. These winds will strengthen in the evening increasing
to gale force once again tonight, south of 11.5N between 74W and
75W. Significant wave heights likely peak around 11 ft downstream
of the ongoing gales. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse
to near gale force speeds at night through the rest of the week,
possibly reaching gale force once again Fri night and Sat night as
high pressure builds over the western subtropical Atlantic.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 01S21W. The ITCZ extends from 01S21W to 04S35W. Scattered
moderate strong convection is noted from 03S to 10N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad and deep upper level high is centered over central Mexico
with large-scale subsidence occurring over the Gulf of Mexico.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry lower to mid-
levels with some upper-level moisture streaming over the northern
Gulf. At the surface, weak high pressure ridge extends across the
eastern Gulf, with the latest ship and buoy obs indicating
moderate to fresh southerly flow continues over the western Gulf.
A surface trough is present over the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W
to 18N93W. Seas in this region are generally running 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail beneath the surface ridge with
seas 3 ft or less.

Fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf will diminish this
afternoon. High pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern
Gulf through Sat, generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds
across most of the basin for the next few days. Fresh northeast
to east winds will develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula, then diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front
will move into the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with increasing
winds and seas expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A 500-mb trough persists over the eastern Caribbean this morning,
with isolated showers noted in radar imagery south from Puerto
Rico and the Lesser Antilles east of 65W. At the surface, a ridge
across the subtropical western Atlantic is maintaining moderate
trade winds across much of the basin, with fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean and north of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the NW Caribbean. Seas are running
8-11 ft within the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, and
less than 8 ft over the rest of the basin.

High pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean through this week. Minimal
gale force winds are expected offshore the coast of Colombia
Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the sub-
tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong northeast winds through the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish tonight.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer ridge extends across the subtropical western Atlantic
waters this morning. A surface trough in the western Atlantic
extends from 31N78W to 27N80W with minimal convection near the
axis. Further east, a cold front reaches across the northern
portion of our central Atlantic waters from 31N36W to 29N52W,
then stalls and weakens to near 31N59W. Scatterometer data showed
fresh to strong winds poleward of the front, accompanied by 8-10
ft seas in northerly swell. South of the front, 28N59W to 21N68W
and from 30N35W to 25N37W with scattered showers and tstorms in
their vicinity. Elsewhere, no notable weather or marine conditions
are associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
over the Atlantic waters generally south of 20N and east of 50W.

A high pressure ridge will persist across the northern waters for
the next several days. Fresh to strong southwest winds will build
seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front
that is expected to move across the waters north of 22N late Wed
night through Fri night while weakening. Associated northerly
swell will propagate across the northern waters Thu night through
Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the northern waters Fri
night through Sat night.

$$
Torres
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